Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Ease but Close Higher on the Week

Natural gas prices reversed Thursday’s climb, moving lower on Friday by nearly 1%. For the week prices were up 1.6%. Prices benefited from a smaller than expected build in natural gas inventories.  The weather is expected to be warmer than normal on the east and west coast and normal throughout the mid-west for the next 2-weeks. The U.S. Natural gas rig count was unchanged while the total oil and gas rig count declined by 1 rig the first time in 6-weeks. Canada’s overall rig count decreased this week by 1. Oil and gas rigs in Canada now sit at 55 active rigs, up 29 on the year.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices reversed Thursday’s rise and closed down 1%. The 10-day moving average is about to cross above the 50-day moving average, meaning that a short-term up trend is poised to be in place. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 83, above the overbought trigger level of 80 and could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum remains positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

LNG Exports are Flat

U.S. LNG exports are flat week over week. Twenty LNG vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 73 Bcf departed the United States between April 15 and April 21, 2021, according to shipping data provided by the EIA.