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James Hyerczyk

The New Zealand Dollar is trading slightly higher on Friday, while posting an inside move. The price action suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Traders couldn’t make up their minds today with the Kiwi under the influence of really shaking risk sentiment.

The currency started out strong as global equity markets rose, but then the Kiwi retreated late in the session when the major U.S. stock indexes turned negative for the day. The price action brought a little fear into the markets and investors offset some of these worries by taking protection in the U.S. Dollar.

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At 20:14 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6663, up 0.0013 or +0.19%.

The New Zealand Dollar is also in a position to post its biggest weekly loss since mid-May.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6489 will change the main trend to down. A move through .6789 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is also up. The new minor bottom is .6601. Taking out this level will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is .6489 to .6789. Its retracement zone at .6639 to .6604 is support. This zone stopped the selling at .6601 on Wednesday.

The minor range is .6789 to .6601. Its retracement zone at .6695 to .6717 is the first upside target. This zone stopped the buying on Thursday at .6709.


Short-Term Outlook

The NZD/USD is going to finish Friday’s session in between a pair of 50% levels at .6639 and .6695 and a pair of Fibonacci levels at .6604 and .6717. Holding inside these ranges will produce a choppy, two-sided trade.

A breakout over .6717 could be a labored event with potential resistance at .6758, .6789 and .6791.

A breakdown under .6603 could trigger an acceleration to the downside. The daily chart shows there is no support under this level until the August 20 main bottom at .6489.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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