NZD/USD forecast for the week of August 7, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar fell during the week, as the 0.75 level has offered a bit too much in the way of resistance. It’s also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer-term move, so it makes sense that the sellers would come back into the market. If we can break down below the bottom of the weekly candle, I think that the market sells off and reaches towards the 0.72 handle underneath. Alternately, if we can break above the highs from last week, that should be a bullish move, and send the market towards the 0.78 handle.

Volatility and commodities

With the jobs number better than anticipated out of the United States, it puts a lot of bullish pressure on the US dollar. This will have a volatile effect on commodities, as it will not only bring down the value of commodities in US dollars, but it also suggests that we could see more demand, this causes quite a bit of noise in those markets, and by extension will cause quite a bit of noise in this one. Be patient, and let the market tell you which direction it is going, thereby allowing you to get involved and be in the right side of the trade. There is a lot of noise just above, so a pullback makes quite a bit of sense over the next couple of candles.

NZD/USD Video 07.8.17