Oil and Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Crude Rebounds on Geopolitical Risks, Gas Holds in Tight Range

WTI crude oil (CL) extended gains on Tuesday, trading near $64.60 in early Asian hours. This rally reflects supply concerns as peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine remain stalled. The market is now waiting for the API’s weekly crude oil stock data to provide fresh direction.

On the other hand, geopolitical risks are also driving prices higher. Drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have raised fears of supply disruptions. A fire at the Ust-Luga terminal and reduced reactor capacity have amplified these concerns. Meanwhile, US President Trump’s warning of new sanctions has added further uncertainty to the outlook.

Monetary policy signals provide additional support for oil. Fed Chair Powell signalled possible rate cuts in September, putting downward pressure on the US dollar. A weaker dollar makes oil more affordable for global buyers, boosting demand. With market expectations for a rate cut near 84%, bullish momentum in WTI crude oil is building in the short term.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Rebound within Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows that prices have rebounded from support near the $62 area. This rebound has formed a new upward channel, with immediate resistance at the 50-day SMA around $66.40.

Despite the recovery, the overall trend remains uncertain, as prices continue to consolidate within a wide range. A break below $60 would be negative and could push prices toward $55.50.

A decisive drop under $55.50 would signal further downside momentum. On the upside, strong resistance remains at the $75 region, and a breakout above this level would open the way for additional gains in WTI prices.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation with Bearish Bias

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that prices are consolidating within a wide range. The drop below the long-term support at $64 quickly rebounded, bringing prices back near the $65 resistance region. This indicates that WTI remains directionless, trading sideways without a clear trend.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Consolidation at Support

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that prices remain under bearish pressure, holding strong support in the $2.60–$2.70 region. A break below $2.60 would signal further downside momentum. However, a recovery above the $3.00 level is needed to ease short-term pressure.

The $2.60 support is critical because it acts as the neckline of a cup-and-handle pattern formed in 2024. A rebound above the $3.00 region would therefore suggest a potential bottom formation in natural gas prices.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows that prices are consolidating within a tight range, highlighted by the blue area on the chart. This range lies between $2.60 and $2.90, and a break below $2.60 would signal further downside in natural gas prices.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Uncertainty at Support

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it is consolidating within the red-circled area and lacks clear direction. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech triggered a sharp sell-off, but the index has since rebounded, creating uncertainty in this region. A recovery above 100.50 is needed for bulls to target the 102 level, while a break below 96 would signal further downside in the US Dollar Index.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Negative Price Action

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that it has broken out of the ascending broadening wedge pattern. However, the index rebounded on Monday, highlighting uncertainty in this region.

The price has now entered the red zone, which previously acted as strong support. A break above 98.60 is needed to push the index toward 99.20, while a drop below 97.60 would confirm a breakdown and signal further downside.