Oil News: Crude Oil Above $65.26 200-Day MA, Eyes $67.44 Pivot Break

Oil Prices Straddle 200-Day Moving Average as OPEC+ Output Rises

Crude oil futures eased on Tuesday after a nearly 2% gain, with traders dissecting fresh U.S. tariff threats and a sharper-than-expected OPEC+ production increase. Light crude is trading near $67.90, holding firmly above the 200-day moving average at $65.26 while straddling the long-term pivot at $67.44, keeping the market technically firm despite emerging supply risks.

OPEC+ Unwinds Voluntary Cuts, Lifts August Output

The OPEC+ alliance, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to raise production by 548,000 bpd in August, surpassing the 411,000 bpd increases of recent months. This effectively removes nearly all of the 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts since 2023.

Sources indicate the group may approve an additional 550,000 bpd hike for September, unwinding the last tranche of cuts during its August 3 meeting. While this supports near-term physical supply, traders are weighing the potential oversupply risk if seasonal demand ebbs post-summer.

U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Adds to Demand Risks

President Trump’s plan for sharply higher tariffs from August 1 has injected uncertainty into broader markets, stirring concerns over global demand impacts on crude.

While Trump hinted the deadline may not be firm, the potential for escalating trade tensions is a watchpoint for traders, particularly as tighter middle distillate markets and Houthi threats on shipping routes are supporting prices at the margins.

Managed Money Remains Bullish Into Summer Demand

Traders remain constructive near-term, with Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showing money managers increased net-long positions in crude futures and options during the week ending July 1.

This signals ongoing confidence as the U.S. enters peak summer driving season, counterbalancing the headwinds from OPEC+ supply increases and tariff risks.

Oil Prices Forecast: Cautiously Bullish While Above Key Support

With prices holding above the 200-day moving average and trading on the strong side of the $67.44 long-term pivot, the market maintains a cautiously bullish tone in the near term. Resistance levels are noted at $71.20 and $76.10, with support at $65.26 and $64.00.

While HSBC warns that rising OPEC+ exports could add downside pressure once seasonal demand wanes, tight middle distillate supplies and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to underpin the market, keeping the path tilted higher so long as crude holds above the $65.00-$67.00 zone traders are watching closely.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.