Crude Oil Edges Lower as OPEC+ Output Hike and US Tariff Uncertainty Weigh
Crude oil futures slipped Thursday after rejection at the long-term pivot of $67.44, with traders closely monitoring U.S. tariff risks, upcoming OPEC+ output decisions, and weakening demand signals from China and the United States.
Prices had climbed 3% in the prior session after Iran halted cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, raising geopolitical tensions, while a preliminary U.S.-Vietnam trade deal added short-lived optimism.
However, the market turned cautious as the 90-day pause on higher U.S. tariffs is set to expire on July 9 without fresh trade deals with major partners like the EU and Japan, adding uncertainty to the demand outlook.
At 09:56 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $66.75, down $0.70 or -1.04%.
OPEC+ Output Hike May Add to Supply Pressures
Traders are positioning for the OPEC+ meeting this weekend, where the alliance is expected to approve an output increase of 411,000 barrels per day. This potential supply boost arrives as crude sits near technical support at the 200-day moving average of $65.23, keeping downside levels in focus.
Still, if the market generates enough upside momentum, acceleration toward the short-term pivot of $71.20, which marks the 50% retracement of the $78.40 to $64.00 range, remains in play.
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See all Brent Oil forecastsU.S. Inventory Build and China Slowdown Raise Demand Concerns
On the demand side, signals are softening. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.8 million barrels to 419 million barrels last week, contrary to forecasts for a 1.8 million barrel draw, highlighting tepid domestic demand. Gasoline demand dipped to 8.6 million barrels per day, raising concerns about consumption during the peak summer driving season.
In China, service sector activity expanded at the slowest pace in nine months, with new export orders declining, suggesting weaker oil demand from the world’s top importer. These signals are feeding into the cautious positioning by traders ahead of the July Fourth holiday, with many opting to reduce exposure during the long U.S. weekend.
Federal Reserve Policy Looms Over Oil Prices Forecast
Attention now turns to Thursday’s U.S. monthly employment report, which could clarify the timing and depth of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of the year. Lower interest rates may eventually spur economic activity and support oil demand, but a private payrolls report showing contraction for the first time in two years highlights near-term demand fragility.
Balanced Outlook as Traders Watch Key Levels
Oil prices are currently balancing between downside pressures from potential OPEC+ supply increases and softening demand indicators, and upside potential if geopolitical tensions escalate or Fed cuts stimulate growth.
For now, crude remains in a technical holding pattern, with traders watching for a decisive move above $67.44 or a breach of $65.23 to guide near-term positioning, keeping the oil market balanced but cautious in the immediate term.
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