Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Stall Below 200-Day MA as Gaza Ceasefire Eases Risk

Middle East Ceasefire, Moving Average Resistance Cap Oil Rally

WTI crude oil futures are trading slightly lower Thursday, threatening to snap a four-day winning streak. Wednesday’s rally peaked at $62.92, but the upside was capped by stiff resistance at the 200-day moving average of $63.02. That technical ceiling, coupled with the 50-day moving average at $63.09, has created a zone that traders are closely monitoring for a breakout. Notably, the 50-day MA is poised to cross below the 200-day MA — a bearish crossover that could signal trend weakness ahead.

A decisive move above both moving averages would indicate strong buying interest, potentially triggering a run toward the long-term pivot resistance at $64.21. On the downside, support rests at a minor pivot of $61.66, followed by a key demand zone between $60.40 and $59.91.

At 11:22 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $62.29, down $0.26 or -0.42%.

Gaza Ceasefire Deal Tempers Geopolitical Risk Premium

Market participants are assessing news of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which could ease regional tensions and weigh on crude’s geopolitical premium. Egyptian media reported that both parties signed a deal in Sharm el-Sheikh, although Israeli confirmation hinges on cabinet approval. If implemented, the agreement would include a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a hostage-prisoner exchange.

Rystad Energy’s chief economist Claudio Galimberti noted the deal could have “wide-ranging” implications for oil markets, including reduced Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea and an increased chance of renewed Iranian crude flows if nuclear talks resume. However, Galimberti also cautioned that past ceasefire attempts have unraveled.

Michael McCarthy of Moomoo said the OPEC+ group remains the dominant factor in Middle East supply, noting the recent agreement to modestly raise production in November had already eased oversupply concerns.

Ukraine Stalemate Supports Supply-Side Caution

Wednesday’s gains in oil were partly driven by stalled Ukraine peace negotiations, which reinforced expectations that sanctions on Russia — the world’s No. 2 oil exporter — will remain in place. This prolongs constraints on Russian crude flows into global markets.

Meanwhile, U.S. demand showed strength, with petroleum products supplied — a proxy for domestic consumption — rising to 21.99 million barrels per day last week, the highest level since December 2022, per EIA data. But global demand signs are mixed. JP Morgan analysts reported early October demand averaged 105.9 million bpd, slightly below expectations, with signs of softening in key indicators from China, Germany, and the U.S.

Crude Oil News Today Points to a Cautious Near-Term Bias

With geopolitical tensions easing slightly and crude unable to break above major moving average resistance, the near-term oil prices forecast tilts bearish. A failure to reclaim the 200-day and 50-day moving averages may invite selling pressure toward the $60.40 support area. Traders should monitor headlines around the Gaza ceasefire and Ukraine talks closely, as these could rapidly reprice risk in the oil market.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.