Oil News: EIA Report Seen as Key Catalyst for MA Breakout as Oil Demand Supports Crude

Light Crude Eyes Break Above Key Moving Averages as Traders Await EIA Fuel Data

Light crude oil futures slipped slightly on Wednesday, but traders are focused on whether bullish fuel numbers in the U.S. EIA report can finally drive a successful break above the 50-day moving average at $60.66. That level has capped every rally attempt for nearly a month, and today’s official inventory release at 15:30 GMT is widely viewed as the potential catalyst for a decisive move.

At 10:39 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $60.31, down $0.36 or -0.59%.

Oil Prices Forecast Hinges on EIA Draws vs. Oversupply Signals

Industry data from the API showed a 4.45 million-barrel build in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending November 14, along with increases of 1.55 million barrels in gasoline and 577,000 barrels in distillates.

ING strategists called the report “relatively bearish,” though they highlighted that traders remain focused on supply risks rather than a prolonged surplus. This mixed setup places even more weight on the government data.

A draw in fuel stocks could provide the bullish spark needed to clear the 50-day moving average and shift momentum toward higher resistance levels outlined by traders.

Tighter Fuel Markets Support the Bullish Case

Despite oversupply concerns, price declines have been limited. Analysts noted that attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have tightened the fuel market, especially in diesel.

PVM’s John Evans said Tuesday’s gains were supported by reduced Russian diesel exports, which pushed European diesel margins to their highest level since September 2023.

This tightening in refined product markets presents a supportive backdrop if the EIA confirms stronger fuel demand or unexpected inventory draws. Traders are looking for a 1.9M barrel crude oil draw.

Oil Prices Projections Weigh U.S. Sanctions and Shifting Trade Flows

U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, with a November 21 compliance deadline, are already pressuring Russia’s export volumes. The U.S. Treasury said Monday the measures are squeezing Russian oil revenues, and buyers in China and India are shifting to alternative suppliers.

While traders are balancing concerns about global oversupply, these sanctions reinforce the risk of reduced Russian crude availability—another factor that could amplify any bullish EIA fuel numbers and strengthen upward momentum.

Can Crude Oil News Today Break the 50-Day Moving Average?

A bullish EIA report would give the market its best chance yet to break above the 50-day moving average at $60.66. If crude pushes higher, traders will immediately watch the $61.23 swing top, followed by the 200-day moving average at $61.37 and another swing top at $61.45. Clearing these levels would open the path toward the October 24 high at $62.54 and potentially the long-term 50% retracement at $63.69.

A bearish report, however, would signal firm selling pressure and could pull prices back toward the short-term retracement zone at $59.23–$58.44 and the swing bottom at $58.07.

Short-Term Market Forecast: Bullish Bias if EIA Fuel Data Confirms Strength

Given tightness in refined products and the potential for sanctions-related supply reductions, the market enters the EIA release with a mildly bullish tilt. A confirmed draw in fuel inventories should be enough to propel crude through the 50-day moving average and test higher resistance levels.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.