Oil News: Futures Struggle Below Key Moving Averages as Russian Supply Returns Online

Range-Bound Trade Persists Despite Russian Export Resumption

Crude oil futures were slightly firmer on Tuesday but held within Friday’s broad trading band, signaling limited conviction as traders assess the latest supply headlines and ongoing sanctions risk tied to Russia.

While light crude continued to draw support from a retracement zone at $59.23–$58.44 and a swing bottom at $58.07, gains remained constrained by the 50-day moving average at $60.70 and the 200-day moving average at $61.39.

Oil markets traded marginally lower through the session as attention shifted to the rapid restart of Russian flows from the Novorossiysk hub, where loadings resumed sooner than expected following a Ukrainian drone and missile strike.

At 11:08 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futuresare trading $59.88, up $0.02 or +0.03%.

Oil Prices Forecast: Russian Flows Resume and Sanctions Remain in Focus

Loadings at Novorossiysk resumed on Sunday after a two-day halt that temporarily removed roughly 2.2 million barrels per day from the market. The outage had pushed crude more than 2% higher on Friday, but confirmation that volumes were returning pressured prices early Tuesday. Traders remain focused on whether U.S. and Western sanctions will curb Russian exports more materially through the coming months.

The U.S. Treasury noted that penalties imposed in October on Rosneft and Lukoil are already squeezing Moscow’s revenues, while ANZ Research flagged widening discounts on Russian barrels. Still, several analysts emphasized that Russia has historically adapted to sanctions, suggesting only temporary disruption unless enforcement tightens further.

Crude Oil News Today: China’s Stockpiling Accelerates

Fresh data pointed to a sizable build in China’s crude inventories in October, with an estimated surplus of 690,000 barrels per day as imports and domestic output exceeded refinery runs. This compares with 570,000 barrels per day in September and underscores Beijing’s strategy of increasing stockpiles when prices are considered favorable.

China imported 11.39 million barrels per day and produced 4.24 million barrels per day in October, leaving 15.63 million barrels per day available to refiners, who processed 14.94 million barrels per day. For the first ten months of the year, the average surplus stands near 900,000 barrels per day, reinforcing China’s role as an informal stabilizer of global balances.

Oil Prices Projections: Goldman Flags Multi-Year Supply Wave

Goldman Sachs reiterated expectations for a significant supply surplus through 2026 driven by long-cycle projects reaching completion and OPEC+ unwinding production cuts.

The bank projected Brent at $56 and WTI at $52 in 2026, well below current forward curves, citing a roughly 2 million barrels per day glut expanding into next year. The International Energy Agency likewise sees the 2025 surplus potentially exceeding 4 million barrels per day.

While Goldman said Brent could dip into the $40s in a recession scenario, the bank also highlighted possible upside above $70 in 2026/2027 if Russian output declines sharply.

Conclusion: Short-Term Bearish Outlook

With Russian exports back online, China absorbing excess supply unevenly, and major institutions warning of a prolonged surplus, the short-term crude outlook tilts bearish. The current range-bound trade—held in check by moving-average resistance—reflects a market bracing for additional pressure unless a new supply disruption emerges.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.