Oil News: OPEC+ Sparks Bounce, But Outlook Remains Bearish Below 200-Day MA

Oil prices forecast supported by OPEC+ restraint, but key resistance limits upside

Crude oil futures extended gains into a second session on Monday, lifted by a smaller-than-expected supply increase from OPEC+. Light crude found strong technical support last Thursday at $60.40, just ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $59.91—a key level that has held for now.

However, upward momentum is already facing pressure near the 200-day moving average at $63.04 and the 50-day moving average at $63.42. With the broader trend still pointing lower, technical resistance is expected to attract fresh selling interest.

At 10:46 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $61.91, up $1.03 or +1.69%.

OPEC+ said it would raise oil output by 137,000 barrels per day in November, mirroring October’s increase and falling short of more aggressive hikes some in the market had anticipated.

Analysts say the restrained move reflects internal disagreements: Russia favored a modest bump to avoid downward price pressure, while Saudi Arabia reportedly pushed for an increase of up to four times that level to regain market share faster.

The decision signals a cautious balancing act as the group faces both oversupply concerns and competitive pressure from U.S. shale.

Supply concerns grow as non-OPEC barrels re-enter the market

Despite the modest OPEC+ increase, bearish supply signals are building elsewhere. Analysts pointed to a return of Venezuelan exports, the resumption of Kurdish crude flows via Turkey, and a buildup of unsold Middle Eastern cargoes for November. These developments come on top of a year-to-date OPEC+ output rise of over 2.7 million bpd, equivalent to roughly 2.5% of global demand.

Adding to bearish sentiment, U.S. inventories showed a larger-than-expected rise in crude, gasoline, and distillates in the week ending September 26. According to the EIA, total product supplied—a closely watched proxy for demand—dropped by 627,000 bpd, reflecting weakening consumption into the fourth quarter.

Refinery maintenance and China stockpiling offer limited support

Some short-term support may emerge from seasonal refinery maintenance in the Middle East and continued Chinese stockpiling. Additionally, ongoing sanctions, inefficient trade routes, and geopolitical tensions are still providing a modest risk premium. However, Saudi Arabia’s decision to leave the official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia unchanged—despite expectations for a slight increase—highlights lingering concerns over regional oversupply.

Bearish near-term outlook as sellers defend key moving averages

Despite Monday’s bounce, oil remains under pressure below the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. Unless prices can break and hold above $63.42, sellers are likely to reassert control. With technical resistance intact and demand signals softening, the market’s near-term oil prices forecast remains bearish, with further downside risk if $59.91 Fibonacci support is retested.

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