Oil News: Tanker Hit in Hormuz Puts Brent Above $90 as U.S.-Iran War Risk Escalates Again

Five ships per day are moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war started in February, that number was closer to one hundred. The United States struck Iranian positions on Larak Island over the weekend. Iran hit back at U.S. bases in Jordan. A tanker took three projectiles leaving the Strait on Tuesday. Crude rebuilt the entire premium sellers spent last week pulling out of the market.

Daily October WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis

October WTI crude oil futures are edging higher early Tuesday as traders attempt to extend the previous session’s rally. A trade through Monday’s high at $86.79 could extend the rally, with the next potential objectives a pair of tops at $87.69 and $88.07.

On the downside, the first support is a short-term 61.8% level at $84.81, followed by a short-term 50% level at $80.98.

Daily November Brent Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis

November Brent crude oil futures are trading higher early Tuesday. A breakout over Monday’s high at $91.52 could trigger an acceleration into the August 21 main top at $92.98. This is the next major resistance before the May 18 main top at $95.82.

The nearest support is a short-term retracement zone at $89.76 to $88.77. A break under $88.77 will not change the main trend to down, but it could shift momentum to the downside.

Brent Above $90 and the Premium Is Still Building

At 00:44 GMT, November Brent crude oil futures are up 56 cents, or 0.6%, at $91.05 per barrel. October West Texas Intermediate crude is up 83 cents, or 1.0%, at $86.59.

Monday did the heavy lifting. Brent settled up $2.39, or 2.71%, at $90.49 after reaching $91.52, its highest since August 25. WTI settled up $2.36, or 2.83%, at $85.76. Last week traders were pulling war premium out as some Gulf barrels kept moving through Hormuz. The first direct U.S.-Iran military exchange in a month broke that trade.

The Strait Is Still Taking Fire

Visible commodity-vessel traffic through the Strait fell to about five ships per day over the weekend. Before the conflict that number was closer to one hundred. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a tanker was struck by three projectiles sailing out of the Strait on Tuesday. No casualties. No environmental damage.

The Strait carried about one-fifth of global oil supplies before the war began in late February. Iran shut the waterway after the United States and Israel attacked on February 28. Six months later, five ships a day. A tanker hit on Tuesday.

Mediators from Qatar and Oman are still working to reopen the waterway. Progress has stalled. Iran says it wants a negotiated solution. Both sides spent the weekend launching strikes.

Larak Island Put Direct Attacks Back in the Price

The conflict had shifted toward an economic standoff before the weekend. Then the U.S. struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island. Iran responded with missiles at two U.S. air bases in Jordan. President Trump threatened further strikes. That was the sequence crude traders got between Friday’s close and Monday’s open.

Brent went from pulling back last week to $91.52 in one session. WTI went from losing more than 4% on the week to settling above $85.76 Monday. The market was willing to fade war premium last week. It is not willing to fade direct attacks and a tanker hit in the same Strait the premium is built on.

Analysts polled in August expect oil to remain above $80 per barrel through 2026 as shipping disruptions continue. The market is already trading $10 above that floor.

Venezuela Has Reserves but Not Barrels This Week

The Venezuela agreement is the counterweight. Trump said oil secured through the deal would help refill the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The reserve fell by about 3.1 million barrels last week to 286.6 million barrels, near its lowest level in 44 years.

Chevron, GE Vernova, India’s ONGC, Italy’s Eni and Colombia’s GeoPark are reportedly moving toward final agreements on energy projects in Venezuela after months of negotiations. Venezuela has major reserves. U.S. refiners can use the heavy crude. The SPR needs replenishing.

The agreements still need to be finalized. Fields need capital. Infrastructure needs work. Venezuelan barrels are not arriving this quarter. The SPR is near a 44-year low right now. The Strait is taking fire right now. A supply project that takes years to develop does not give sellers a reason to step in front of Brent above $90.

Sanctions Are Squeezing but Not Producing a Deal

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the purpose of U.S. sanctions is to create conditions that bring Iran back to negotiations. Iran has not shown it is ready to reopen the Strait without terms. The United States has not shown it is ready to ease pressure. Six months of sanctions, six months of military action, and the Strait is still running at five ships a day.

The economic side and the military side are both escalating. Neither one has produced a deal. Crude is trading that reality. Brent above $90. WTI above $86. A tanker hit on Tuesday. The premium that sellers were fading last week is back and it has more evidence behind it than it did a month ago.

What to Watch

Five ships a day through Hormuz. A tanker hit on Tuesday. Larak Island strikes over the weekend. The premium that came out last week went back in Monday and Tuesday morning is adding to it.

Brent above $91.52 opens the August 21 main top at $92.98 and $95.82 after that. WTI above $86.79 targets $87.69 and $88.07. Venezuela is months away from adding barrels. The SPR is near a 44-year low. Sanctions are not producing a deal. The conflict is setting the price.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade crude oil, please visit our educational area.