Oil News: Technical Breakdown Risk Grows with 50-Day MA Near Bearish Cross

WTI Crude Holds Key Support as Traders Await OPEC+ Supply Clarity

Light crude oil futures edged higher early Friday, holding slightly above Thursday’s four-month low of $60.40. Technical support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $59.91 is emerging as a pivotal level for traders. A sustained move below this mark could accelerate downside momentum, exposing the May 30 low at $55.74.

At 10:24 GMT, Light crude oil futures are trading $60.89, up $0.41 or +0.68%.

On the upside, resistance is layered at the 200-day moving average at $63.04, the 50-day moving average at $63.46, and a key 50% long-term retracement level at $64.21. Notably, the 50-day MA is set to cross below the 200-day MA—a bearish signal that could trigger additional selling pressure if confirmed.

OPEC+ Supply Talks Weigh on Oil Prices Forecast

Crude oil prices are heading for a sharp weekly loss, with WTI futures down 7.5% and Brent off by 8.1% as of Friday morning. Traders are closely watching the OPEC+ Group of Eight, who may agree this weekend to increase output in November by as much as 411,000 barrels per day.

This comes as Saudi Arabia signals a shift toward regaining market share, raising concerns about a return to oversupply conditions. According to Rystad Energy, demand indicators have softened in the Atlantic Basin as the summer season winds down, while upcoming refinery maintenance adds to downside risks.

JPMorgan analysts believe the market began tilting into surplus in September, with excess supply expected to continue through the fourth quarter. That fundamental imbalance is starting to reflect more clearly in trader sentiment.

Chevron Refinery Fire Offers Limited Price Impact

A fire overnight at Chevron’s 290,000 bpd El Segundo refinery—one of the largest on the U.S. West Coast—sparked brief market attention but is unlikely to affect broader crude pricing. Local officials confirmed the blaze was contained to one section, and there has been no confirmed disruption to output.

Analysts stressed that the West Coast’s relative isolation from national crude flows minimizes its impact on WTI pricing. While California gasoline prices may feel a bump, PVM’s Tamas Varga and Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen both downplayed any wider implications for oil markets.

Bearish Outlook as Supply Risks Outweigh Demand Support

WTI crude’s failure to recover above key moving averages and bearish technical signals—combined with rising OPEC+ output expectations and weakening demand—point to further downside risk in the near term. Unless prices reclaim support at the 200-day moving average, the outlook remains bearish, with a break below $59.91 likely to accelerate selling pressure.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.