Oil Tests Resistance in the $67 Area After False Breakout

The base scenario for WTI oil is one of apparent calm. The price, which today opened at $65.45, favors a phase of consolidation. The current bullish breakout, not being supported yet by productive or macroeconomic shocks, is more driven by a market that is pricing uncertainty and anticipation of risk than by concrete fundamental realities.

Below, we’re going to see what are the levels of the news catalysts, the context of the supply and the most relevant technical levels in this phase.

Geopolitical Premium Reclaims the Headlines

Crude has started to show a phase of weakness despite the geopolitical backdrop remaining noisy. This is what really matters.

When a market stops reacting strongly to risk, it often signals that positioning and the underlying balance are weighing more than news and rumors.

The new sanctions tied to Iran-linked logistics and the jamming in the Strait of Hormuz have added a “risk premium” to crude prices (even without a physical blockage of routes), but the market reaction has been measured, not explosive.
At the same time, still-robust Russian exports, Iranian flows continuing via the shadow fleet, and US production near historic highs are making it harder for oil to sustain bullish follow-through. The combination of these two opposing forces is generating this phase of uncertainty and price compression.

The wait for new nuclear talks between the US and Iran is supporting this phase, and if they were to lead to an easing of tensions, we could see prices slip lower. Conversely, we would witness the release of that compressed energy mentioned earlier.

Price action on the Renko chart perfectly reflects the situation. The market has tried several times in the past days, failing, to maintain the price in zone $67 and then turned to the downside going to test supports already known such as $63.90.

This behavior is classic when transitioning from a trending regime to a range. Looking at the charts, it appears that sellers are fading rallies while buyers are hunting for better support levels.

Why The Context Matters

Adopting a broader view, we note that while oil remains sensitive to shocks, it is now struggling to sustain a scarcity narrative. The days of a perception of structurally insufficient supply may be behind us.

At least in this period, the real market movers are geopolitics, sanctions, and shipping disruptions.

And this is precisely why, for example, a Russian or Iranian shadow fleet dampens these impulses. It is certainly too early to talk about a regime change and scenario shift, but it is clearly what we are seeing in this market phase.
US production remains a key anchor. Output and productivity have stayed solid enough to limit the upside when prices approach important resistance zones.
Even without a dramatic increase in supply, simple persistence changes market behavior, because oil, as we have seen, often reacts to shifts in balance more than to the absolute level.

In this context, technical levels become even more important because that is where positioning concentrates.

Financial Analysis

Technical Picture: The Renko Shows Breakout After Retest of the Support

The Renko structure is the most clear part of the story in this moment.

The area $67.20 emerges as the evident roof. The chart shows repeated attempts toward that zone, followed by failure and rollover. This sequence usually indicates that the buyers are present, but not enough strong to absorb the supply and maintain the bullish movement.

After the failure, the price has rotated toward the first support at $65.70 and then headed without stops to the now famous $63.90.

As anticipated in the opening, we can consider a bullish bias only after a clear pullback and continuation of zone $67. In this case we will see $68.40 first and $69.30 then.

Momentum and Positioning: Neutral Readings, Fading Bullish Fuel

The momentum does not signal a takeoff. It is more subtle.

On the indicators panel, the ECRO is in phase of release after having passed all the Asian session and part of the European one dancing between the opening price and the Weekly Pivot at $65.19.

The Stochastic tells us of a nice bullish divergence that has anticipated the movement of the break of the latest highs.

Let us not forget that the rallies could struggle to become persistent without a net change of the geopolitical news.

Positioning and Risk

In my view, the short setup is neutral until the price does not confirm the break of $67.20.

Bullish scenario: To take back the control, the buyers must conquer $67.20 with clear follow-through. In that case the path toward the upper resistance band and potentially the area $70 reopens. The most probable catalyst would be a real shock as we were saying before, the only true “fuel” (it is the case to say it) to support a movement of this kind.

Bearish scenario: A net break below $63.90 without rapid recovery would suggest a transition into corrective phase, with $63.00 / 63.20 as next key area. The main driver would be a further easing of the international tensions.

The key risk of this reading remains a possible geopolitical escalation, which can change rapidly the picture.

Conclusion

Oil, after repeated failures near $67.20, has lifted the head. Whether it is a false movement or not will be told by the technical analysis and above all by the geopolitics of these days.

The context of the supply does not signal a real scarcity, which helps to explain why the market struggles to sustain the bullish momentum despite the background noise.

The base scenario remains range, except the long/short breakouts of which we have spoken. Until a real shock will emerge it is probable that oil will remain trapped in this regime.

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