Silver (XAG) Forecast: $50.02–$49.97 Range in Focus Ahead of Fed Minutes, U.S. Jobs Data

Silver Stalls Ahead of High-Impact U.S. Data — Rangebound but Loaded

Spot silver is trading quietly near $50.50 to start the week, posting an inside day that reflects indecision and coiling volatility. The market is holding inside a key technical zone between $51.07 and $50.02 — and when you include the secondary support band down to $48.93, you get a tight $50.02 to $49.97 pocket that’s likely to determine the next move.

In other words, silver’s caught in a holding pattern — but don’t mistake that for stability. It’s more of a calm before the data storm.

At 14:15 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $50.68, up $0.09 or +0.18%.

Markets on Hold as Jobs Report Looms

Traders are bracing for a string of delayed U.S. economic releases, headlined by Thursday’s September nonfarm payrolls report. It’s the first major data point in weeks thanks to a blackout, and it could tip the balance on the Fed’s next move.

Rate cut odds for December have already dropped sharply — now sitting around 45%, down from over 62% last week. That shift is keeping buyers cautious and putting a ceiling on precious metals, at least for now. But if Thursday’s jobs data disappoints, expect positioning to flip fast — especially in silver, where thin liquidity tends to amplify reactions.

Gold Holds the Line — for Now

Gold is stabilizing just above key support at $4023.35 after last week’s 2% drop. Treasury yields have edged lower — the 10-year is back down to 4.127% — which is helping to offset some pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar. But even with yields dipping, the gold market isn’t catching a strong bid, reflecting the broader uncertainty around the Fed’s path.

Silver’s Technical Map: Trapped, but Not for Long

Technically, silver is boxed in. A clean breakout above $51.07 would signal buyer conviction and put $54.39 in play. On the downside, a sustained move under $49.97 — and especially a break below $48.93 — would likely drag the market toward the 50-day moving average at $47.58.

Right now, neither side is showing urgency. But that won’t last.

Outlook: Coiled for a Break — Watch the Jobs Data

Bottom line: Silver is rangebound, but the fuse is lit. Thursday’s data dump could be the trigger for the next directional move. A soft jobs print might pull forward Fed cut bets and spark safe-haven demand across metals. Until then, expect choppy, low-conviction trade as the market stays on edge, waiting for something to chase.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.