Silver (XAG) Forecast: $50.02 Pivot in Focus as Fed Tone Shapes Silver Outlook

Silver Balances at the Pivot as Fed Expectations Shift Again

Spot Silver (XAGUSD) spent the week trading tightly around the key $50 area, absorbing quickly shifting expectations for a December rate cut. Last week’s settlement at $50.02 remained the central reference point, with traders adjusting positions each time rate probabilities changed. The market held firm on dips, but conviction was uneven as the macro backdrop delivered conflicting signals.

Fed Messaging Keeps Traders Off-Balance

Early in the week, rate-cut odds fell sharply, dropping from the 60–70% range into the mid-40s after Fed officials stressed that inflation progress must be more convincing before easing. That kept silver capped despite brief intraday strength.

Later in the week, comments from Fed member John Williams revived near-term easing expectations, pushing December cut odds back above 70%. Treasury yields softened, helping silver stabilize when intraday pressures deepened, though traders remained cautious.

Labor Data Adds Complexity

The delayed September nonfarm payrolls report showed 119,000 new jobs versus expectations near 50,000. While revisions trimmed prior months, the headline signaled that hiring is slowing but not cracking. The stronger print initially weighed on silver as yields firmed and the dollar strengthened ahead of the release.

After the report, yields eased only modestly — not enough to spark a sustained bid — leaving silver rangebound as traders reassessed the rate backdrop.

Gold Fails to Provide Consistent Support

Gold spent much of the week moving without conviction, caught between softer yields and a firmer dollar. This uneven behavior limited spillover buying for silver. Brief stretches when gold firmed despite dollar strength did help silver early in the week, but those moves faded once labor data reset expectations.

Weekly Technicals: $50.02 Remains the Decisive Level

The weekly technical structure remains intact. The main trend is up, reinforced by the 52-week moving average at $36.77. A sustained move above $50.02 confirms buyer interest, with $51.07 as the first upside marker. Strength above that level opens a path toward the multi-year high at $54.49.

A sustained move below $50.02 signals sellers gaining control, exposing the key support band at $45.72–$45.55. Only a break of $45.55 would reverse the weekly swing chart trend. Additional long-term levels sit at $43.66, $41.40, and $38.31.

Short-Term Forecast

Silver enters the new week balanced but sensitive. Holding above $50.02 favors upside toward $51.07 and potentially higher if Fed expectations lean dovish. A close beneath the pivot would turn the tone defensive and open room toward the mid-$45s. With conflicting data still shaping rate expectations, traders should anticipate two-way trade, but the weekly trend continues to support buying dips as long as price holds above major weekly support.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.