Solana (SOL) has lost a quarter of its value in the past 7 days as the market tanked following President Donald Trump’s reveal of his candidate to replace Jerome Powell as the head of the Federal Reserve.
Millions in long positions and thousands of traders were flushed out of the futures market amid the news. Yet, Solana’s network usage levels have spiked to new records according to data from Artemis.
Weekly transaction volumes have been rising since the end of December, moving from 466 million to 910.2 million as of last week for a 95.3% jump.
Solana On-Chain Metrics – Source: Artemis
This is the highest level on record, indicating a sustained uptick in network activity. Meanwhile, weekly active addresses also rose from 2.9 million to 5.4 million since the beginning of January, this being the highest level this metric has reached in a year.
These figures are similar to those the blockchain exhibited back when President Trump’s official memecoin was launched.
That said, trading volumes across Solana-based decentralized exchanges (DEXs) have been relatively quiet, moving from around $25 billion to $30 billion during this period. So, it is not just meme coins driving this uptick in network usage.
The community is amazed by these numbers, but identifying a specific cause for this unexpected spike could be the reason why the market is ignoring it.
SOL/USD Daily Chart (Coinbase) – Source: TradingView
We uncovered this improvement in the network’s fundamentals more than a week ago. Yet, we said in our latest Solana price prediction that a break below $125 seemed likely, and set a bearish target for the token at $100.
This target has already been surpassed. So, congratulations to those who listened and made a killing on their short positions.
Now, we are once again hitting a key support at $97 from which SOL bounced back in April last year. Buyers scooped up SOL frantically at this mark, and positive momentum accelerated until pushing SOL to $240.
Market sentiment was similar back then. Investors were panicking due to a relentless downtrend. The Fear and Greed Index was hitting 15, as it has now, and buyers were nowhere to be found.
SOL/USD Daily RSI – Source: TradingView
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) had reached a similar oversold level just a week before SOL bottomed. Right now, the oscillator is standing at 25, which is an extreme reading, even for cryptocurrencies.
The odds of a technical rebound are quite high at this point, as sellers have gone too far already. That said, we could still get a move to lower ground if the $97 threshold is broken.
In that case, a short-term target for SOL could be set at $78, meaning a downside risk of 20%. I would be a buyer in that scenario, especially with the RSI sitting at these depressed levels.
Meanwhile, if SOL bounces strongly off $97, SOL should recover to $120 to retest its bearish price structure. A reversal would only be confirmed if we get past $130, in which case we may expect a strong recovery to $150 – $170 at least in the mid-term.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.