S&P 500 Today: CPI Print Could Jolt Market as Intel Leads Tech Higher Premarket

Buyers holding the line ahead of CPI test

The S&P 500 E-minis are basically on pause this morning — last trading around 6,399.50 — as traders keep things tight ahead of the U.S. CPI release at 12:30 GMT. That’s the event everyone’s waiting for, and more likely than not, it’ll decide whether we’re making a run toward fresh highs or sliding back toward last week’s 6,239.50 low. Yesterday’s grind back above 6,380 keeps the short-term bias leaning bullish, but the bigger bets are waiting until the data hits.

What’s on the market’s mind right now?

The street’s looking for +0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year on the headline CPI, with core expected at +0.3% and 3.0%. A cooler print could all but cement a September rate cut — Fed funds futures are still pricing that around 87%. A hotter number might rattle that confidence and send us looking for support. We’ve also still got tariff chatter in the background, though Trump’s 90-day extension on higher China levies has taken some immediate heat out of that story.

Where do the technical battle lines sit?

The August 1 high at 6,468.50 is the near-term ceiling. Above that, the path opens toward record territory.

On the downside, 6,354.00 is the first real trigger — lose that, and things could accelerate quickly toward the 50-day SMA at 6,240.6 and the August 5 low at 6,239.50.

If the CPI comes in hot, even the 200-day way down at 6,029.30 could come into view, but that would take a real shift in tone.

For intraday eyes, holding above 6,381.00 keeps the bulls in control; slip below 6,354.00, and sellers will probably press their advantage.

Intel grabs attention in the premarket

One stock worth noting here is Intel, up more than 2% premarket after Monday’s 3.7% regular-session pop. The move follows CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s White House visit, which seems to have cooled tensions with Washington — at least for now.

Traders are reading it as a potential sign the company could keep its CHIPS Act funding intact, even as questions linger over its manufacturing strategy. With INTC still trying to turn around years of missteps, today’s follow-through could draw more buyers if the broader tape holds firm post-CPI.

What could spark the next big swing?

Quite frankly, it’s all about the 12:30 GMT CPI print. A soft number could see buyers jumping on dips; a hot one, and that 6,354.00 break might have us sliding toward those lower supports in a hurry. Either way, the next couple of hours are setting up to decide the tone for the rest of the month.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.