S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – Attempt to Break Out but Failed

The S&P 500 rallied during the course of the week, testing the 3400 level but pulled back a bit. Ultimately, the 3400 level is a massive barrier that will be difficult to break above. That being said, the jobs number coming on Friday did nothing the lift spirits, as it was a bit of a miss, even though it was positive. Beyond that, there are a lot of people while Wall Street looking for the next handout, and it has not arrived yet. A strengthening US dollar of course does not help the stock market either, so there you go.

S&P 500 Video 05.10.20

I think at this point we are essentially trading between the 3200 level on the bottom and the 3400 level on the top. Whether or not we can break out of there is a completely different story, but it does not seem very likely at this point. If we do break out of this 200 point range, then we are either going to go to the 3600 level or the 3000 level depending on the direction.

The candlesticks are conflicting over the last three weeks, so at this point it looks like we really have nowhere to be. If you think about it, it would not be a huge surprise to stay in this overall range between now and the election at the beginning of November. Having said that, I am more than willing to take the trade that breaks out, be it up or down from this range if and when it finally happens.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.