S&P500: Record High After Back-to-Back Soft Inflation Reports

S&P 500 Hits Record as Back-to-Back Soft Inflation Reports Clear September

The S&P 500 pushed to a fresh intraday record at 7816.70 Thursday after the PPI came in flat for July against expectations for a 0.2% rise. That is the second soft inflation report in two days after Wednesday’s CPI showed consumer prices rising just 0.1%.

The technology shares are up 0.8% with memory chips and AI infrastructure names doing the heavy lifting. The industrial sector is flat.

Crude is down about 1% on weaker demand forecasts from OPEC and the IEA. The uptrend was reaffirmed on the break above the previous record and buyers are not waiting for the Fed to confirm what the data is already showing.

The S&P 500 gained 0.6%. The Nasdaq was up 0.8%. The Dow was flat.

Daily S&P 500 Index (SPX) Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 Index is trading higher late in the session on Thursday. Shortly before the mid-session, the benchmark index posted a new record high at 7816.70 before pulling back slightly.

Today’s rally through the previous top at 7793.68 reaffirmed the uptrend. Additionally, a new minor bottom was formed at 7717.25. It is now paired with the August 6 minor bottom at 7698.15. A trade through these levels will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside.

Memory and AI Hardware Are Leading the Bid

The strongest buying is in memory and data-center hardware. The Roundhill Memory ETF gained about 5% and is heading for a third straight winning session. Sandisk jumped 16%. Western Digital gained 8%. Micron rose more than 6%. That group is not trading the PPI number. It is trading the same AI infrastructure demand that pushed CoreWeave, Super Micro and Nebius higher Wednesday.

Super Micro added another 6% after rising 19% Wednesday on first-quarter guidance that blew past expectations. The company called for adjusted earnings of $1.01 to $1.10 per share and revenue of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion. Wall Street had been looking for $0.72 and $11.82 billion. Super Micro builds the servers. Micron supplies the memory. Both stocks are telling traders the spending behind AI is still reaching the equipment side of the business.

The money is spreading through the supply chain and that is better than a one-stock Nvidia rally. The question is whether buyers keep adding after two strong sessions or start taking profits into the close.

Cisco Missed on Margins and Got Punished

Cisco fell about 9% even after beating on earnings and revenue. The problem was its first-quarter gross-margin outlook of 65% to 66%, just under the 66.1% estimate. A stronger fiscal 2027 outlook was not enough to outweigh the margin concern.

Cisco Systems is trading sharply lower late in the session on Thursday after gapping below the 50-day moving average at $117.71. If buyers can’t retake the 50-day MA then look for the selling to possibly extend into the July 16 main bottom at $107.53.

The names delivering bigger revenue, stronger orders and clearer AI demand are getting bought. The names with a margin question or a revenue miss are getting sold regardless of what else they offered.

Netflix Gets an Ackman Stake

Netflix rose more than 3% after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square disclosed a new position. Ackman owned Netflix in early 2022 but sold about three months later. His return gives traders a fresh reason to look at a stock that has already been one of the stronger media names this year. Meta was also higher, giving the large-cap technology group more support.

Netflix is trading higher shortly after the mid-session on Thursday. The stock received a boost on the opening when it gapped above the 50-day moving average at $74.88. A sustained move over this indicator will signal the presence of buyers. If it creates enough momentum over the near-term then we could see the rally extend into the 200-day moving average at $89.35, which sits inside a long-term retracement zone at $87.02 to $92.19.

Stocks in the News

Birkenstock jumped 14% after quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat expectations. Red Robin rallied nearly 25% on a stronger-than-expected quarter. Grocery Outlet gained 5% after beating on earnings and revenue.

Tapestry fell almost 15% after revenue only narrowly topped forecasts. Yeti dropped 12% after reaffirming rather than raising guidance. JD.com fell roughly 8% despite beating estimates as revenue declined year-over-year. StubHub lost nearly 14% on a gross margin miss.

Cerebras fell nearly 14% after second-quarter revenue came in at $180 million, below the $194 million estimate. Coherent moved lower after its report despite first-quarter guidance that beat expectations.

What to Watch

The S&P 500 made a record after two soft inflation reports and a crude oil pullback gave buyers everything they needed to keep the September hike case off the table. The memory and AI hardware group is leading with real earnings behind the move, not just rate relief. Cisco, Cerebras and Coherent show the market is still selective and a margin miss or a revenue shortfall gets sold fast even on a green day.

The record was reaffirmed on the break above 7793.68. The uptrend is intact. The risk is that the Nasdaq is doing all the work while the Dow sits flat. If the memory and Super Micro bid holds into the close, the rally has legs into Friday. If those names start giving back gains, Thursday’s record high is another technology-led move without much help from the rest of the market.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.