The Day Ahead: Markets Eye Payrolls, Tariffs, and Mid-Cap Earnings Today

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are under pressure Friday as traders await the July employment report and digest mixed Big Tech earnings and new tariff measures. S&P 500 futures are down 0.16%, Nasdaq 100 off 0.23%, and Dow futures lower by 0.15%.

The S&P 500 fell 0.4% Thursday, extending its losing streak to three sessions. The Nasdaq finished marginally lower after hitting fresh intraday highs early in the session. The Dow shed 330 points (–0.7%).

Despite strong reports from Microsoft and Meta, sentiment weakened as Amazon offered soft operating income guidance, sinking 6% after hours. Apple gained 2% on an earnings and revenue beat.

President Trump intensified trade policy, announcing a 35% tariff on Canadian goods and a 40% rate on transshipped products. The changes take effect today and add a new layer of geopolitical risk ahead of critical labor market data.

Key Economic Releases

At 12:30 GMT:

• Non-Farm Payrolls: 106K expected vs 147K prior
• Unemployment Rate: 4.2% expected vs 4.1% prior
• Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3% expected vs 0.2% prior

At 13:45 GMT:

• Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 expected vs 49.5 prior

At 14:00 GMT:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 expected vs 49.0 prior
• ISM Manufacturing Prices: 69.9 expected vs 69.7 prior
• Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: 62.0 expected vs 61.8 prior
• Construction Spending m/m: 0.0% expected vs –0.3% prior
• Revised UoM Inflation Expectations: 4.4% prior
• Wards Total Vehicle Sales (All Day): 16.0M expected vs 15.3M prior

Notable Earnings

Scheduled before the open:

• Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR): 4.49 est
• AMC Networks (AMCX): 1.24 est
• Essent Group (ESNT): 1.91 est
• Koppers Holdings (KOP): 1.36 est
• Lamar Advertising (LAMR): 2.08 est
• Sylvamo (SLVM): 1.98 est
• Tempus AI (TEM): –6.86 est
• Wendy’s (WEN): 0.27 est

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 E-mini last traded at 6,323.75. Resistance stands at 6,468.50. Support levels are 6,241.00, followed by the 50-day moving average at 6,180.70, and the 200-day at 6,018.50.

The Nasdaq 100 E-mini last traded at 23,169.75. It faces resistance at 23,845.00. Support sits at 23,108.00, then the 50-day moving average at 22,522.10, and the 200-day at 21,473.58.

The Dow E-mini last traded at 43,933. Immediate support aligns with the 50-day moving average at 43,734.70, followed by the 200-day at 43,609.00.

Outlook

The July labor report is the key pivot for Friday’s session. A downside surprise in payrolls—particularly below 100K—combined with benign wage growth would likely pressure yields and offer upside for growth and tech-heavy sectors. Conversely, stronger job creation or wage acceleration would reignite inflation concerns and may challenge the recent rally in rate-sensitive names.

Tariff actions reintroduced geopolitical uncertainty at a delicate time. President Trump’s new 35% Canada tariff and 40% transshipment penalty create added friction for North American trade and may hit industrials and cross-border supply chains.

With mixed earnings, slowing momentum, and rising policy headwinds, today’s print will likely determine whether bulls can regain control or if August begins with a deeper pullback. Expect elevated volatility into and after the 12:30 GMT release.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.