The Week Ahead: Fed Minutes and Early Earnings Take Center Stage

Market Overview

U.S. equities extended their advance last week, with all three major indices finishing near record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.97% to close at 52,900.08, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.12% to 25,832.67, and the S&P 500 added 1.76% to finish at 7,483.24. All three indices continue to trade above their rising 52-week moving averages, confirming that the longer-term uptrend remains intact.

The primary focus this week shifts to the Federal Reserve. Investors will closely examine the minutes from the June FOMC meeting for additional insight into policymakers’ views on inflation, interest rates and the economic outlook following the Committee’s decision to leave rates unchanged.

The economic calendar is relatively light outside of the Fed minutes, while second-quarter earnings begin to gather pace. Reports from PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Levi Strauss and several other companies will provide an early read on corporate performance.

Key Events by Day

Monday:
• 13:45 GMT – Final Services PMI
• 14:00 GMT – ISM Services PMI

Tuesday:
• 12:15 GMT – ADP Weekly Employment Change
• 12:30 GMT – Trade Balance
• Tentative – RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism
• 20:30 GMT – API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
• Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC, after close) Earnings – Est. $0.50
• Penguin Solutions (PENG, after close) Earnings – Est. $0.54

Wednesday:
• 14:00 GMT – Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories
• 17:01 GMT – 10-y Bond Auction
• 18:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 19:00 GMT – Consumer Credit m/m
• Helen of Troy (HELE, before open) Earnings – Est. $0.01
• AZZ (AZZ, after close) Earnings – Est. $1.69
• Levi Strauss (LEVI, after close) Earnings – Est. $0.24
• PriceSmart (PSMT, after close) Earnings – Est. $1.32

Thursday:
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims
• 14:00 GMT – Existing Home Sales
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage
• 17:01 GMT – 30-y Bond Auction
• PepsiCo (PEP, before open) Earnings – Est. $2.21
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL, before open) Earnings – Est. $0.35
• WD-40 (WDFC, after close) Earnings – Est. $1.56

Friday:
• Tentative – Fed Monetary Policy Report
• Delta Air Lines (DAL, before open) Earnings – Est. $1.47

Central Bank Activity

Monday
Christopher Waller (Federal Reserve Governor) – 15:00 GMT

Wednesday
FOMC Meeting Minutes – 18:00 GMT

Thursday
John Williams (President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York) – 13:00 GMT

Friday
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report – Tentative

The Federal Reserve will be the primary macro focus this week. Investors will look for additional detail on policymakers’ views regarding inflation, the labor market and the future path of interest rates following the June meeting.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average

Dow Jones: 52,900.08 (+1.97%), support at 50,806.21, 50,311.17, 48,980.57, 48,708.57, 48,054.67 then the 52-week SMA at 47,805.23, resistance at 52,903.85. Holding above support keeps the broader uptrend intact, while a move above resistance would mark a fresh breakout.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite

Nasdaq: 25,832.67 (+2.12%), support at 24980.38, 23,940.23, the 52-week SMA at 23,228.42, 23,173.24, resistance at 27,190.21. The index remains comfortably above its long-term trend, with resistance defining the next upside objective.

Weekly S&P 500

S&P 500: 7,483.24 (+1.76%), support at 7237.85, 6,968.90, the 52-week SMA at 6,838.91, 6,815.03, resistance at 7,620.90. Price continues to hold above key support, keeping the prevailing trend positive.

Outlook

The June FOMC meeting minutes will be the week’s principal event as investors look for additional insight into the Committee’s assessment of inflation, economic growth and future interest-rate policy. Scheduled remarks from Federal Reserve officials and Friday’s Monetary Policy Report will provide further context for markets.

Early second-quarter earnings will also receive close attention. Reports from PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Levi Strauss and other companies will provide the first indications of corporate performance across consumer, industrial and transportation sectors.

With the major indices continuing to trade above their key technical support levels, this week’s Fed communication, economic releases and the opening stages of earnings season are expected to be the primary catalysts for traders.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.