Markets today focus on PCE data and key U.S. indicators as investors assess inflation and the outlook for the week ahead.
U.S. equities rallied in the Thanksgiving-shortened week, with the S&P 500 up 3.7%, the Dow gaining 3.2%, and the Nasdaq rising 4.9%. All three indexes extended their broader uptrends, supported by easing yields and renewed interest in large-cap tech. Year-to-date, the Dow is up 12.2%, the S&P 500 has gained 16.4%, and the Nasdaq is higher by 21.0%.
Market tone improved as rate-cut expectations firmed, with futures pricing an 83% chance of a December Fed cut. A sharp drop in the VIX below 17 reinforced calmer conditions following the prior week’s volatility spike. Tech leadership remained mixed as Apple and Broadcom posted strong gains while Nvidia retreated on reports that Meta is evaluating alternative chip suppliers.
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.01%, helping bolster equity sentiment. Trading volumes were light due to the holiday, but the move higher carried broad participation across sectors.
The central focus this week is inflation. Delayed September PCE and Core PCE data will finally be released Friday, offering markets a key read on price pressures heading into year-end. Investors will also watch ISM data and labor-market indicators for confirmation of cooling trends. With the Fed now in its pre-meeting quiet period, economic releases take center stage.
Monday, Dec 1
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• 14:45 GMT – Final Manufacturing PMI, forecast 51.9 (previous 51.9)
• 15:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing PMI, forecast 49.0 (previous 48.7)
• 15:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing Prices, forecast 59.5 (previous 58.0)
After the Close:
• MongoDB (MDB), est. $0.81
Tuesday, Dec 2
Before the Open:
• Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), est. $1.31
Economic Releases:
• 15:00 GMT – RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, forecast 44.2 (previous 43.9)
• Wards Total Vehicle Sales, forecast 15.4M (previous 15.3M)
After the Close:
• CrowdStrike (CRWD), est. $0.94
• Marvell (MRVL), est. $0.74
Wednesday, Dec 3
Before the Open:
• Dollar Tree (DLTR), est. $1.09
• Macy’s (M), est. -$0.15
Economic Releases:
• 13:15 GMT – ADP Employment Change, forecast 19K (previous 42K)
• 13:30 GMT – Import Prices m/m, forecast 0.1% (previous 0.3%)
• 14:15 GMT – Capacity Utilization, forecast 77.3% (previous 77.4%)
• 14:15 GMT – Industrial Production m/m, forecast 0.1% (previous 0.1%)
• 14:45 GMT – Final Services PMI, forecast 55.0 (previous 55.0)
• 15:00 GMT – ISM Services PMI, forecast 52.0 (previous 52.4)
• 15:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, previous 2.8M
After the Close:
• Snowflake (SNOW), est. $0.31
Thursday, Dec 4
Before the Open:
• Kroger (KR), est. $1.03
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Challenger Job Cuts y/y, previous 175.3%
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 220K (previous 216K)
• 15:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, previous -11B
After the Close:
• Ulta Beauty (ULTA), est. $4.56
Friday, Dec 5
Before the Open:
• Victoria’s Secret (VSCO), est. -$0.59
Economic Releases:
• 15:00 GMT – Core PCE m/m, forecast 0.2% (previous 0.2%)
• 15:00 GMT – Prelim UoM Sentiment, forecast 52.0 (previous 51.0)
• 15:00 GMT – Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, previous 4.5%
• 15:00 GMT – Personal Income m/m, forecast 0.3% (previous 0.4%)
• 15:00 GMT – Personal Spending m/m, forecast 0.3% (previous 0.6%)
• 20:00 GMT – Consumer Credit m/m, forecast 14.4B (previous 13.1B)
After Fed Chair Powell’s remarks on Monday night, the Fed enters its pre-meeting quiet period through December 11. With policymakers off the calendar, markets will take their cues directly from this week’s economic data, especially inflation and labor-market readings, to gauge whether expectations for near-term rate cuts remain intact.
Technical Outlook
Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Dow Jones: 47,716.43 (+3.18%), support at 45,728.93, 45,452.03 then 43,859.55 (52-Week SMA), resistance at 48,431.57.
Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)
Nasdaq: 23,365.69 (+4.91%), support at 21,898.29, 20,905.99, 20,560.17 then 20,165.86 (52-Week SMA), resistance at 24,019.99.
Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)
S&P 500: 6,849.09 (+3.73%), support at 6,521.92, 6,360.58, 6,212.69 then 6,138.11 (52-Week SMA), resistance at 6,920.34.
All major indexes remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.
This week’s setup centers on inflation. Friday’s delayed September PCE and Core PCE readings carry added importance, offering clarity on whether price pressures continue to cool. Markets will also study ISM data and the ADP report for signs that demand and labor costs are moderating.
With Fed officials silent, incoming data will guide expectations for December and early-2026 policy. Equities begin the week with firm momentum after strong November gains, but investors will want confirmation that inflation progress is intact.
Overall, the week’s releases will help set the tone into year-end by determining whether markets continue to price in easier policy and supportive financial conditions.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.
