The Week Ahead: Markets Eye Tariff Ruling, Nvidia Earnings, and Key PPI Report

Market Overview

U.S. equities closed higher last week as trade uncertainty eased and investors focused on earnings and rate expectations. The S&P 500 finished at 6,909.51 (+1.07%), the Nasdaq Composite advanced to 22,886.07 (+1.51%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 49,625.98 (+0.25%). Leadership remained concentrated in large-cap technology, while the Dow posted more modest gains.

The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down IEEPA-based tariffs removed a key policy overhang. The administration’s immediate move to implement a 10% tariff under Section 122 limited market disruption and shifted attention back toward growth, inflation, and earnings.

Fourth-quarter GDP rose 1.4%, below expectations and sharply slower than the prior quarter’s 4.4% pace. Core PCE held at 3%, remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. FOMC minutes reinforced a wait-and-see posture, with several participants open to adjusting policy if inflation remains elevated.

This week’s tone will be driven by confidence data, producer inflation, and an active slate of Fed speakers alongside heavyweight earnings.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday (Feb 23)
Before the Open:
• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), est. $5.38
• Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), est. -$0.70
• Freshpet (FRPT), est. $0.39

Economic Releases:
• 13:00 GMT – FOMC Member Waller Speaks
• 15:00 GMT – Factory Orders m/m, forecast -0.4% (prior 2.7%)

After the Close:
• Diamondback Energy (FANG), est. $2.00
• ONEOK (OKE), est. $1.50

Tuesday (Feb 24)
Before the Open:
• Home Depot (HD), est. $2.53
• American Tower (AMT), est. $2.54
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), est. $0.59

Economic Releases:
• 13:00 GMT – FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks
• Tentative – ADP Weekly Employment Change, prior 10.3K
• 14:00 GMT – HPI m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.6%)
• 14:00 GMT – S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, forecast 1.3% (prior 1.4%)
• 14:15 GMT – FOMC Member Waller Speaks
• 14:30 GMT – FOMC Member Cook Speaks
• 15:00 GMT – CB Consumer Confidence, forecast 87.6 (prior 84.5)
• 15:00 GMT – Richmond Manufacturing Index, forecast -4 (prior -6)
• 15:00 GMT – Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
• 20:20 GMT – FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
• 21:30 GMT – API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
• 02:00 GMT – President Trump Speaks

After the Close:
• First Solar (FSLR), est. $5.14
• Workday (WDAY), est. $2.32

Wednesday (Feb 25)
Before the Open:
• Lowe’s (LOW), est. $1.94

Economic Releases:
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior -9.0M
• 14:30 GMT – FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
• 15:00 GMT – FOMC Member Schmid Speaks
• 17:20 GMT – FOMC Member Musalem Speaks

After the Close:
• Nvidia (NVDA), est. $1.53
• Salesforce (CRM), est. $3.05

Thursday (Feb 26)
Before the Open:
• Baidu (BIDU), est. $9.76
• Cheniere Energy (LNG), est. $3.82

Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 216K (prior 206K)
• 15:00 GMT – FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
• 15:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior -144B

After the Close:
• Dell (DELL), est. $3.52
• Intuit (INTU), est. $3.68

Friday (Feb 27)
Before the Open:
• Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR), est. -$1.01
• ANI Pharmaceuticals (ANIP), est. $1.99
• BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG), est. $0.35

Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Core PPI m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.7%)
• 13:30 GMT – PPI m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.5%)
• 14:45 GMT – Chicago PMI, forecast 52.4 (prior 54.0)
• 15:00 GMT – Construction Spending m/m, forecast 0.2% (prior 0.5%)

After the Close:
• No reports scheduled

Central Bank Activity

Monday: Waller – 13:00 GMT.
Tuesday: Goolsbee – 13:00 GMT; Waller – 14:15 GMT; Cook – 14:30 GMT; Barkin – 20:20 GMT.
Wednesday: Barkin – 14:30 GMT; Schmid – 15:00 GMT; Musalem – 17:20 GMT.
Thursday: Bowman – 15:00 GMT.

Heavy Fed speaker volume increases the probability of rate repricing, particularly around inflation persistence and labor conditions.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 49,625.98 (+0.25%), support at 48,428.13, 45,728.93 then 45,090.91 (52-week SMA), resistance at 50,512.79.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 22,886.07 (+1.51%), support at 21,898.29, 20,999.95 (52-week SMA) 20,905.99 then 20,560.17, resistance at 23,988.27.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,909.51 (+1.07%), support at 6,775.50, 6,521.92, 6,360.58 then 6,343.02 (52-week SMA), resistance at 7,002.28.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Outlook

Producer inflation and Consumer Confidence are the primary data catalysts. Friday’s PPI and Core PPI readings will directly influence rate expectations, while Tuesday’s confidence data will test whether consumer sentiment is stabilizing after January’s sharp drop.

Earnings remain the second driver, with Nvidia positioned as the key sentiment gauge for AI leadership. If inflation readings cooperate and guidance holds firm, indices can press toward resistance. A hotter PPI print would likely pressure rate-sensitive sectors and test near-term support.

More Information in our Core PCE.