The Week Ahead: Markets Watch Fed Minutes and Nvidia Earnings for Direction

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures opened little changed Sunday evening after a choppy week that saw rotation out of mega-cap technology and AI stocks.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% as Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta came under pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.1%, both recovering from steep Thursday losses.

Year to date, the Dow is up 10.8%, the S&P 500 has gained 14.5%, and the Nasdaq is up 18.6%.

Investor sentiment is mixed as traders reassess the timing of potential Fed rate cuts. The probability of a December cut has dropped to roughly 51%, down from 95% last month, after several Fed officials suggested the central bank may stay patient given inflation risks.

The end of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown lifted a near-term overhang but also introduced uncertainty around fourth-quarter growth. Economists expect GDP to slow by as much as 1.5 percentage points in Q4, with a rebound likely early next year as federal operations resume.

This week’s focus will center on Nvidia’s earnings Wednesday and Walmart’s results Thursday.

Nvidia’s update could determine whether the recent pullback in AI and chip stocks is a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction. Walmart’s results will gauge the consumer’s strength after weeks of disrupted federal paychecks and weak sentiment data.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Nov 17
Before the Open:
• Aramark (ARMK), est. $0.64
• Brady (BRC), est. $1.19
• J&J Snack Foods (JJSF), est. $1.24
• JinkoSolar (JKS), est. –$4.32
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Empire State Manufacturing Index, forecast 10.7 (prior 6.1)
• 15:00 GMT – Construction Spending m/m, forecast –0.1% (prior –0.2%)

Tuesday, Nov 18
Before the Open:
• Home Depot (HD), est. $3.84
• Baidu (BIDU), est. $7.84
• Medtronic (MDT), est. $1.31
After the Close:
• Dolby Labs (DLB), est. $0.70
• Helmerich & Payne (HP), est. $0.23

Wednesday, Nov 19
Before the Open:
• Target (TGT), est. $1.71
• TJX (TJX), est. $1.23
After the Close:
• Nvidia (NVDA), est. $1.23 on revenue $54.59B (prior EPS $0.81)
Economic Releases:
• 19:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday, Nov 20
Before the Open:
• Walmart (WMT), est. $0.60
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Non-Farm Employment Change, forecast +22K
• 13:30 GMT – Unemployment Rate, forecast 4.3% (prior 4.3%)
• 15:00 GMT – Existing Home Sales, forecast 4.11M (prior 4.06M)

Friday, Nov 21
Economic Releases:
• 14:45 GMT – Flash Manufacturing PMI, forecast 52.5
• 14:45 GMT – Flash Services PMI, forecast 54.8
• 15:00 GMT – Revised Univ. of Michigan Sentiment, forecast 50.3

Central Bank Activity

Fed speakers return in full force this week with Williams, Jefferson, Barr, and Goolsbee among several officials scheduled to speak. The October FOMC minutes on Wednesday will be the main event, offering insight into how confident policymakers are that inflation is cooling. Any suggestion that cuts may be delayed could cap short-term equity gains.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 47,147.49 (+0.34%), support at 45,452.03 then 43,768.12 (52-week SMA), resistance at 48,431.57.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 22,900.59 (–0.45%), support at 22,193.07, 20,905.99, 19,334.98 then 20,023.23 (52-week SMA), resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,734.11 (–0.08%), support at 6,550.78, 6,360.58, 6,212.69 then 6,110.22 (52-week SMA), resistance at 6,920.34.

All three major indices remain above their rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Outlook

Traders enter the week cautious but constructive as markets digest the end of the shutdown, mixed data, and heavy Fed commentary. Nvidia’s report will be pivotal for the AI sector and may determine whether the recent pullback stabilizes or deepens.

If Fed speakers strike a measured tone and the FOMC minutes show openness to future cuts, equities could find support into Thanksgiving week. Broader participation in industrials, energy, and healthcare continues to cushion weakness in technology, helping sustain the market’s longer-term bullish bias.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.