James Hyerczyk
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U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar is trading higher against a basket of major currencies late Friday on the back of better than expected U.S. factory and services data. The reports showed the continued resilience of the U.S. economy to ward off the impact of the U.S.-China trade war and other headwinds. The news also supports the Fed’s decision to put policy easing on hold.

At 18:39 GMT, December U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 98.170, up 0.271 or +0.28%.

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IHS Markit said its “flash” purchasing managers index (PMI) for manufacturing rose to 52.2 in November from a final reading of 51.3 in October, while its preliminary services PMI increased to 51.6 this month from 50.6 last month.

Helping to boost the dollar index was a drop in the Euro. The single-currency fell after a survey showed Euro Zone business growth almost ground to a halt this month as activity in the bloc’s dominant services industry increased at a much weaker pace than expected and among manufacturers it contracted again.

Daily December U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 98.300 will reaffirm the uptrend. The new main bottom is 97.550. A trade through this level will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 99.305 to 96.885. Its retracement zone at 98.095 to 98.380 controlling the near-term direction of the market. This zone stopped the rally at 98.300 on November 13 and is currently being tested.

The short-term range is 96.885 to 98.300. Its retracement zone at 97.595 to 97.425 is support. This area stopped the selling at 97.550 on November 18.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on today’s price action and the current price at 98.140, the direction of the December U.S. Dollar Index into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 98.095 and the downtrending Gann angle at 98.120.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 98.120 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into an uptrending Gann angle at 98.250, followed by a main top at 98.300 and a Fibonacci level at 98.380.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 98.095 will signal the return of sellers. There is room to the downside under this level with the nearest major support angle coming in at 97.640.

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