USD/CAD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY Forecasts – US Dollar Choppy Early on Monday

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US dollar pulled back slightly against the Canadian dollar during the early part of the trading session on Monday, as we are hanging around the 1.42 level. We have bounced a bit, and that does show a little bit of hope and help. Interest rates in America did try to rise initially during the day, but they are rolling back over.

I think this probably has more to do with the Canadian economy and oil in general. That being said, I’d love to see a little bit of a pullback, maybe to the 1.41 level, before getting overly aggressive, but I do think that this pair eventually reaches the 1.45 level, and therefore I have no interest in shorting it. In fact, it’s not until we break down below the 1.3950 level that I even have that thought.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US dollar has pulled back slightly against the Swiss franc early on Monday, but we are basically at the 0.81 level, a psychologically important level and a level that previously had been a lot of resistance. For what it’s worth, the weekly candlestick was a bit of a shooting star last week, so maybe we get that pullback that I would love to see here to add to an existing position as the swap at the end of every day continues to pay me while I wait for the actual breakout. As things stand at the moment, it looks like the 50-day EMA is getting ready to cross above the 200-day EMA, kicking off the so-called Golden Cross.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar is slightly positive against the Japanese yen. We continue to see the 162-yen level being an area of difficulty, but once we break above there, we will be free to continue to grind higher. The Bank of Japan did intervene at the end of April, and they have said a few things here and there, but quite frankly, when the market has made up its mind, most of the time, the best a central bank can hope for is slowing down the move, and I think that’s what you kind of have here.

This is the US dollar basically moving in the correct direction. The interest rate differential alone should send this pair higher, not to mention the fact that the Bank of Japan is somewhat stuck. I like buying dips. I think your floor is at 160 yen. I think the target, eventually, will probably be 224 yen from all the measurements I’ve taken, possibly higher than that. Obviously, that would be long-term, but that’s how I’m positioned for a longer-term investment.

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