Christopher Lewis
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The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see a lot of noise in general. The Non-Farm Payroll number coming out during the day of course added to the volatility but at the end of the day we are simply hovering around the ¥104 level. There seems to be a significant amount of support near the ¥103.70 area, so if we can break down below there then the downtrend should continue. Otherwise, this is a market that is very likely to continue seeing noisy behavior.

USD/JPY Video 07.12.20

On rallies up towards the 50 day EMA I am looking to short this market, although it seems as if more than anything else, we are in a bit of consolidation. I have no interest in buying, at least not until we break well above the blue trendline on the chart, perhaps even the 200 day EMA which sits above there. Quite frankly, it is hard to buy the US dollar at this point because it is so negative in general and it is clear to me that the US dollar is out of favor with most traders right now. This is not to say that I would never buy this pair, just that we are probably a couple of handles away from being able to do so with good conscience.

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In the meantime, short-term charts to show signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies are probably your best setups until we can break down below the ¥103.70 area. If we drop down below there, then the market could go looking towards ¥102 level.

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