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USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar grinding ahead of Federal Reserve

The US dollar has gone back and forth ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting and press conference on Wednesday, and as a result it looks like going into Thursday we have a lot of decisions to make after the announcement.
Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, September 19, 2019

The US dollar has done very little in the hours ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting as one would expect, and now that we are testing the ¥108 level it’s very likely that we are going to perhaps try to pop higher. If we can break above the 200 day EMA then the market could go even higher than that. It currently sits just below the ¥109 level, so keep that level in mind as well. If we can break above that level, then it’s very likely that the trend will change and we could go much higher.

USD/JPY Video 19.09.19

Remember that this pair is very sensitive to risk appetite so it will come down to whether or not the Federal Reserve looks like it’s willing to be as easy enough to propel stock markets higher. If they are, then it’s very likely that this market will break out to the upside and continue to go much higher as the S&P 500 and the USD/JPY pair are relatively highly correlated. Alternately, if the Federal Reserve is for some reason hotkeys, then the USD/JPY pair may drop down towards the ¥107 level, which is the previous resistance level that the markets had recently broken out above and should now offer support based upon market memory. All things being equal, this is a pair that will probably get what it wants, but we will have to wait and see. We are above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level which is somewhat bullish but that specter of the 200 day EMA above still causes some issues.

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