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Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is trading flat at 0.9809 as strong retail sales supported the Looney, offset by a strong US GDP print. Q4 GDP printed at 3.1% well above expectations at 2.8%.  Canada retail sales in October climbed 0.7 percent from September to a record C$39.45 billion ($39.85 billion), thanks to higher sales at motor vehicle dealers and gas stations.

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Talks in the US seem to have a wall as politicians have reverted to name calling and arguing. As the holiday approaches trading become thinner as traders cash in ahead of year end. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment aid rose last week, putting them back at the lower end of their pre-storm range and suggesting job growth remains moderate.

Investors were looking to book profit ahead of the holidays following a recent rally to two-month highs, while optimism over a resolution to the U.S. “fiscal cliff” of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts in 2013 also eased after the latest setback in U.S. fiscal talks.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 20

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Retail Sales (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

 

 

-1.8% 

   

 

 

HKD

 

 

Hong Kong CPI (YoY) 

3.70%

 

3.90% 

 

3.80% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.7% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.9%

 

1.5% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.1% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

 

357K 

 

344K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

3.1%

 

2.8% 

 

2.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3225K

 

3199K 

 

3213K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Existing Home Sales 

 

 

4.87M 

 

4.79M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

 

 

-3.0 

 

-10.7 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 21

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.9

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-14.0B

-20.8B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

1.0%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-0.2%

1.8%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.2%

0.5%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.3%

-0.2%

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.7

74.5

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

Dec 26 01:30 Japan 

Dec 27 10:10 Italy  

Dec 28 10:10 Italy 

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