What’s Keeping Ethereum (ETH) Price From Hitting $4,000 Target?

Ether’s (ETH) climb toward the $4,000 mark has stalled, despite strong ETF inflows and bullish accumulation by mid-sized whales.

Let’s examine the key factors keeping the Ethereum native token from breaking above the $4,000 threshold.

Ethereum’s $4K Breakout Hinges on One Line

CryptoQuant analyst Ibrahim Coşar believes Ethereum’s path to $4,000 depends on decisively reclaiming its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level currently near $2,570, as support.

“The only thing holding ETH back,” Coşar wrote, highlighting the EMA as the key battleground between bulls and bears.

In previous cycles, every successful breakout above the 50-week EMA has triggered a major upside move.

The analyst cites four historical breakouts, each leading to gains between 24% and 135%, with an average rally of roughly 58%. Applying this average to the current setup would imply an ETH price target near $4,000.

As of June 18, ETH was trading for around $2,540, just below this EMA threshold.

A confirmed close above it could reignite bullish momentum, especially amid strong ETF inflows and improving sentiment around Ethereum’s upcoming protocol upgrades and treasury strategies.

Ethereum Mega-Whales Are Selling While Whales Accumulate

Additional downside pressure in Ethereum markets comes from its richest investors.

Addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH—commonly referred to as “mega-whales”—have reported a net 30-day drop of over 80 addresses in recent weeks, the steepest since mid-2022.

At the same time, the number of addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH has steadily increased, climbing back above 4,950, its highest since April.

The 30-day change in whale address count has turned positive, suggesting renewed accumulation among smaller institutional players and early adopters.

This distribution shift implies that while Ethereum’s largest holders are offloading, likely for profit-taking or reallocation, medium-sized whales are buying the dip in anticipation of a breakout.

Such an absorption of sell-side pressure has kept Ethereum from falling in recent weeks, but the activity is insufficient to push Ether toward the $4,000 target.

Ethereum Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown With $530 Target Still in Play

Adding to Ethereum’s resistance stack is a long-term symmetrical triangle breakdown visible on the two-week chart.

ETH broke below the triangle’s lower trendline earlier this year, confirming a bearish continuation pattern with its downside target at around $530. The decline paused after a strong bounce from the 200-EMA on the same time frame (~$1,600), but the triangle breakdown remains active.

For ETH to invalidate this bearish structure, it must reclaim the broken trendline, currently overlapping with the 50-EMA on the 2-week chart (~$2,560). Until that happens, every rally toward $2,600–$2,700 faces the risk of rejection, thus keeping ETH’s price away from the $4,000 breakout.