XRP joined the broader crypto market in a $133 billion sell-off as investors reacted to shifting sentiment toward the Fed rate path. However, XRP was the worst-performing crypto in the top 10 by market cap.
Investors continued to take profit following the US Court of Appeals’ approval of Ripple and the SEC’s Joint Stipulation of Dismissal on August 22. The approval cemented Judge Torres’ 2023 Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling, paving the way for an XRP-spot ETF market.
However, the SEC recently delayed its decision on several spot XRP ETFs until October, leaving XRP under pressure.
The token has fallen 9.2% since the Court of Appeals ended the Ripple case. Looking further back, XRP is down 21.3% since the SEC approved but delayed the launch of the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) on July 22.
The delay to XRP-exposed crypto-spot ETF launches overshadowed the resolution of the Ripple case. On Friday, August 29, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Analyst James Seyffart shared the latest XRP ETF filing. Amplify ETFs filed for an option income ETF. According to the prospectus:
“The Amplify XRP [ ]% Monthly Option Income ETF seeks to balance high income and capital appreciation through investment exposure to the price return of XRP and a covered call strategy. A portion of the Fund’s long exposure to XRP ETPs will come through the Fund owning shares of the XRP ETPs.”
The latest filing comes as the SEC faces increasing pressure to approve a growing list of pending crypto-spot ETF applications.
James Seyffart shared the latest list of crypto-spot ETFs that included seven purely XRP-focused spot ETFs (final deadlines in brackets):
There are 92 crypto ETP applications currently sitting with the SEC. Significantly, XRP-spot ETFs have lost the opportunity to launch ahead of other altcoin-spot ETFs, including Aptos, ASL, Avalanche, Binance Coin, Bonk, Cardano, Chainlink, Dogecoin, HBar, Litecoin, Melania, Near, Ondo, Pengi, Polkadot, SUI, Tron, and Trump.
What’s the delay?
The SEC has pushed back on crypto-spot ETF decisions pending its rollout of a standardized crypto ETF framework. Nate Geraci, President of NovaDius Wealth Management, recently commented on the planned framework, stating:
“There are filings out there from multiple issuers for XRP ETFs, Solana ETFs, Cardano, HBar, we could go on down the list, but there are a boatload of filings out there, and the expectation is that the standardized crypto framework will be implemented, say in the next two months or so. So, if and when that happens, I think you’re going to see the floodgates open. We’re going to see a wave of approvals.”
Currently, the approval and launch of XRP-spot ETFs remain the key price catalyst, potentially driving XRP to new highs.
Can XRP rejoin the altcoin rally and hit new highs? XRP slid 4.99% on Friday, August 29, following Thursday’s 0.09% loss, closing at $2.8205. The token underperformed the broader market, which dropped 3.46% to a total crypto market cap of $3.71 trillion.
In the near-term, XRP’s price outlook hinges on several key catalysts, including:
Potential scenarios:
Investors expect October to be XRP’s make-or-break month, likely determining whether XRP breaks out or stalls. Meanwhile, global macroeconomic developments and Bitcoin price action will influence XRP demand.
Explore our full XRP forecast here for key breakout zones and timing insights.
While XRP slid on ongoing delays to spot ETF launches, US economic data triggered a Bitcoin (BTC) sell-off.
The US Core PCE Price Index rose 2.9% year-on-year in July after increasing 2.8% in June. Personal income and spending trended higher in July, suggesting a hotter inflation outlook. BTC briefly climbed to a high of $111,550 before tumbling to a low of $107,526 after the data release.
Friday’s economic indicators and uncertainty about the Fed’s policy outlook also weighed on demand for US BTC-spot ETFs. BTC-spot ETF issuers reported total net inflows of $178.9 million on Thursday, August 28. However, the US BTC-spot ETF market could snap a four-day inflow streak on Friday, August 29.
Excluding BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flows, total outflows reached $153.6 million. According to Farside Investors, key flows included:
Friday’s outflows left the US BTC-spot ETF market with total net outflows of $776.1 million in August, month-to-date, leaving BTC well below its record high of $123,731 (August 14).
BTC fell 3.67% on Friday, August 29, reversing Thursday’s 1.17% gain to close at $108,436. Friday’s sell-off left BTC short of the crucial $115,000 mark for the sixth consecutive session.
Looking ahead, several key events may influence the near-term price outlook. These include:
Potential scenarios:
Traders should closely track the following key events to determine whether XRP and BTC rebound:
See where analysts expect XRP and BTC to head in the coming months as regulatory and economic risks evolve.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.