XRP News Today: Fed Minutes, ETF Outflows, US-Iran War Risks Weigh

XRP drops toward $1.4. Rising geopolitical tensions, hawkish FOMC Minutes, and crypto-spot ETF outflows impacted demand for XRP and the broader crypto market.

The FOMC Minutes underscored the need for inflation to fall further to justify lower interest rates.

An increased threat of US military action against Iran added to the negative sentiment, as markets closely monitor developments.

Outflows from BTC-spot ETFs contributed to the mid-week pullback, despite the US XRP-spot ETF market avoiding net outflows after the US holiday.

Nevertheless, expectations that the US Senate will eventually pass the Market Structure Bill, increased XRP utility, and robust demand for US-XRP-spot ETFs continue to support a bullish medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook for XRP, with a price target of $2.5.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term outlook, and the technical levels traders should watch.

Hawkish FOMC Minutes Send XRP Toward $1.4

On February 18, the highly anticipated FOMC Minutes signaled a more hawkish-than-expected policy stance, weighing on XRP demand. The Minutes revealed that most committee members viewed the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) as close to neutral, neither restrictive nor accommodative.

However, some committee members supported a rate cut if inflation continued to cool, bolstering hopes of a June Fed rate cut. Notably, US headline inflation dropped from 2.7% in December to 2.4% in January, while core inflation eased from 2.6% to 2.5%. FOMC members considered December inflation numbers for the January interest rate decision.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June Fed rate cut fell from 63.4% on February 17 to 62.1% on February 18.

XRP reacted to the Minutes, falling from $1.4452 to a session low of $1.4111.

US Edges Closer to War with Iran

While the FOMC Minutes tempered bets on a Fed rate cut, rising geopolitical tensions fueled caution across the crypto market. Axios reported on the latest developments after US-Iran talks failed to deliver a deal, stating:

“The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon.”

Unlike Venezuela, Axios suggested that US military action against Iran would likely last weeks, akin to a full-blown war. However, Axios highlighted uncertainty about the timing of a potential military strike, saying:

“Some US sources tell Axios that the US might need more time. […] But others say the timeline could be shorter.”

Increased risk of a US-Iran war would fuel a flight to safety, weighing on buying interest in crypto. Notably, XRP is likely to be more sensitive to a Middle East conflict, given its utility in cross-border payments. Typically, conflict disrupts global trade and, more importantly, US monitoring of sanctions may tighten, increasing scrutiny over digital asset payments. Main Street may pause XRP adoption until tensions ease.

For context, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped from a March 2022 high of $48,240 to a June 2022 low of $17,689 following the start of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24, 2022. XRP plunged from $0.7177 on February 24, 2022, to a June 2022 low of $0.2875.

XRP-Spot ETF Outflows Add to the Negative Sentiment

Concerns about a US-Iran conflict and the hawkish FOMC Minutes also weighed on demand for crypto-spot ETFs, another near-term headwind for XRP.

On Tuesday, February 17, the US BTC-spot ETF market reported $104.9 million in net outflows, taking total year-to-date net outflows to $2.39 billion. BTC has fallen 23.82% year-to-date amid heavy spot ETF outflows, weighing on demand for XRP.

Notably, the US XRP-spot ETFs reported $2.21 million in net outflows on February 18, reflecting sentiment. It was just the fifth outflow day since the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) began trading on November 14, 2025.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

XRP has tumbled 13.8% in February, supporting a cautiously bearish short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $1.0.

Nevertheless, robust since-launch demand for XRP-spot ETFs, expectations that the US Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, and increased XRP utility support the bullish medium- to long-term price projections:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.0.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish Medium-Term Outlook

Several events could derail the constructive medium-term bias. These include:

• A full-blown US-Iran conflict.
• Upbeat US economic data lowers bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Delays and/or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill.
• Extended periods of XRP-spot ETF net outflows.

Traders should also monitor Bank of Japan rhetoric, given the impact of the mid-2024 yen carry trade unwind on XRP.

A hawkish Bank of Japan, with a higher neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%), would suggest multiple BoJ rate hikes. Multiple hikes would narrow US-Japan rate differentials in favor of the yen. Narrowing rate differentials could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, drying up market liquidity. For context, the BoJ previously announced a wider neutral rate band of 1%-2.5% but stated it would announce a narrower range at a later date.

These scenarios would weigh on XRP, send the token toward $1.0, and reaffirm the cautiously bearish short-term outlook.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP fell 3.47% on February 18, following the previous day’s 0.98% loss to close at $1.4222. The token faced heavier selling pressure than the broader crypto market cap, which dropped 1.55%.

Wednesday’s losses left XRP trading well below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions indicated a bearish bias. Notably, the 50-day EMA pulled further back from the 200-day EMA, suggesting further near-term selling pressure. Nevertheless, several favorable fundamentals continue to offset bearish technicals, supporting the bullish medium-term outlook. Despite these positive fundamentals, short-term technicals remain bearish.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.0, and then $0.7773.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $1.6996.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.1228.
• Resistance levels: $1.5, $2.0, $2.5, and $3.0.

On the daily chart, a breakout above $1.50 would enable the bulls to target the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would pave the way toward the 200-day EMA.

A sustained break above the EMAs would affirm a bullish trend reversal and support the medium- to longer-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Driving Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flow trends.
• US economic indicators and the Fed’s policy stance. This week, FOMC member speeches, US GDP, and US inflation numbers are likely to be key price catalysts.
• Crypto-related regulatory developments.
• The Bank of Japan’s neutral rate and rate path.
• Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Bearish Structure Intact: $1.0 Remains Crucial Support

XRP’s Wednesday loss reaffirmed the existing bearish trend. A break below the lower trendline would bring the February 6 low of $1.1227 into play. If breached, $1.0 would be the next key support level. A sustained fall through $1.0 would reinforce the cautiously bearish short-term outlook and further validate the bearish structure.

However, reclaiming $1.5 would open the door to testing $2.0 and the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would invalidate the bearish structure and indicate a bullish trend reversal, reaffirming the constructive medium-term bias.

• Short-term (1-4 weeks): $1.0.
• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $2.5.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): target of $3.0.

XRP Outlook: Crypto Regulations, ETF Flows, and the Fed in Focus

Looking ahead, developments in the Middle East will be key to XRP’s price outlook. Rising tensions and a US military strike on Iran would likely overshadow crypto-related legislative developments.

Nevertheless, an end to the TradFi-DeFi stalemate on stablecoin yields would raise hopes that the Senate will pass the Market Structure Bill, bolstering longer-term XRP demand.

However, central bank rhetoric and XRP-spot ETF flows will also dictate XRP’s price projection.

A more dovish Fed and a lower BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would boost sentiment. Robust demand for US XRP-spot ETFs and crypto-friendly regulatory developments would reinforce the positive medium-term outlook. A third White House session on stablecoin yields could happen on Thursday, February 19.

In summary, these tailwinds would support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $2.5. The US Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would affirm the longer-term (8-12 weeks) price target of $3.0.

Beyond 12 weeks, these events may send XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A break above $3.66 would reaffirm a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.