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Bob Mason
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US Economy

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning.

The Kiwi Dollar was in focus in the early hours. More significantly, however, U.S President Biden addressed Congress this morning, supporting riskier assets.

For the Kiwi Dollar

Trade data and business confidence were in focus early this morning.

In March, the trade surplus narrowed from NZ$201m to NZ$33m month-on-month.

Year-on-year, the trade surplus narrowed from NZ$2,380m to NZ$1,690m.

According to NZStats,

  • Imports were the highest ever for March, rising by NZ$559m to NZ$5.6bn. The rise came in spite of a NZ$399m slide in crude oil imports.
  • Imports of vehicles, parts, and accessories rose by NZ$190m, mechanical machinery and equipment by NZ$127m, textiles and textile articles by NZ$125m, and electrical machinery and equipment by NZ$115m.
  • By contrast, exports fell by NZ$134m to NZ$5.7bn from the same period last year.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.72580 to $0.72583 upon release of the figures that preceded President Biden’s speech and business confidence figures.

In April, the ANZ Business Confidence Index rose by 2 points to -2.

According to the finalized April survey,

  • Business confidence jumped by 6 points from a prelim -8.4 to a net -2.0%.
  • Firms’ own activity outlook rose by 5 points to 22.2% (prelim: 16.4%).
  • Investment intentions rose 5 points to 17.1% (prelim: 12.4%).
  • Employment intentions increased by 2 points to 16.4% (prelim: 14.1%).
  • Cost expectations rose by 3points to a net 76.1% of respondents expecting higher prices (prelim: 75.1%).
  • A net 55.8% of respondents intend to raise prices (prelim: 52.9%).
  • Export intentions rose 4 points to 9.1% (prelim: 6.6%).
  • A net 41.7% of firms expect credit to be harder to get (prelim -45.5%).
  • Firms were evenly split on whether profits will rise or fall at 0.3% (prelim: -4.3%).

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.72711 to $0.72734 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.36% to $0.7281.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.14% to ¥108.45 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar up by 0.11% to $0.7811.

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The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a busier day ahead on the economic data front. German unemployment and prelim inflation figures are in focus later today.

While we expect the unemployment figures to be key, prelim consumer prices will also influence later in the day.

From Spain, prelim consumer prices for April are also due out, though we expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the EUR.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.18% to $1.2148.

For the Pound

It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction. A lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment and COVID-19 news updates on the day.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.29% to $1.3976.

Across the Pond

It’s another relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. 1st quarter GDP and weekly jobless claims figures will draw interest later today.

While the GDP numbers will certainly influence, initial jobless claims will need to continue the recent downward trend.

Pending home sales figures for March are also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the Dollar and the broader markets.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.15% to 90.447.

For the Loonie

It’s particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of stats from the U.S and market risk sentiment in general.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.19% to C$1.2291 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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