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PPI Up by 0.2% in Both Euro Area and the EU; In Line with Expectations

By:
James Hyerczyk

Euro area's industrial prices up 0.2% in October 2023, but year-over-year fell 9.4%, with energy sector impacting EU prices.

EURO ZONE PPI

Highlights

  • Euro area sees slight monthly industrial price rise
  • Significant yearly drop in industrial producer prices
  • Regional disparities mark price changes in EU

Euro Area Industrial Producer Prices See Marginal Rise

In October 2023, the industrial producer prices in both the euro area and the European Union (EU) experienced a slight increase of 0.2% compared to September 2023. This aligns with market expectations, maintaining the trend observed in September, where a 0.5% rise was recorded.

Sector-Wise Price Fluctuations

The monthly comparison shows a varied landscape across different sectors. In the euro area, the energy sector saw a notable increase of 1.0%, while durable consumer goods edged up by 0.1%.

However, there was a stagnation in capital goods prices, and decreases were observed in non-durable consumer goods and intermediate goods, leading to a 0.2% decrease in total industry excluding energy. The EU mirrored this trend, with a 0.6% increase in energy prices but a decrease in other sectors.

Yearly Comparison Reveals Significant Drops

The yearly comparison paints a different picture. Compared to October 2022, industrial producer prices plummeted by 9.4% in the euro area and 8.7% in the EU. The energy sector experienced a dramatic decrease of 25.0% in the euro area and 22.7% in the EU. There were also declines in intermediate goods, while capital goods and consumer goods saw modest increases.

Regional Variations in Price Changes

The impact of these price changes varied significantly across Member States. Ireland, Italy, and the Netherlands experienced the most significant monthly increases, while Luxembourg, Latvia, and Greece saw the largest decreases. Annually, Bulgaria, Belgium, and Greece recorded the steepest drops in industrial producer prices. Conversely, Luxembourg, Slovenia, and Slovakia witnessed increases.

Short-term Forecast: Cautiously Bearish Outlook

Considering these figures, the short-term outlook for the industrial producer market in the euro area and the EU seems cautiously bearish. The significant yearly decreases, particularly in the energy sector, overshadow the marginal monthly increases, indicating a downward pressure on prices. This trend suggests a cooling period for the industrial market in the near term.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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