The Week Ahead – Geopolitics, Economic Data, and Central Banks in Focus

On the Macro

It is a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 49 stats due out through the week ending 29-April. In the week prior, 57 stats were in focus.

For the Dollar:

Core durable goods and consumer confidence figures will draw attention on Tuesday. Expect consumer confidence to have a greater influence.

On Thursday, the markets’ focus will shift to Q1 GDP and weekly jobless claims. Barring a spike in jobless claims, the GDP numbers will be key.

At the end of the week, inflation and personal spending will wrap up a busy week for the dollar.

In the week ending April-22, the Dollar Spot Index gained 0.72% to end the week at 101.22.

For the EUR:

At the start of the week, German business sentiment will provide direction. Expect another slide to test EUR support.

On Wednesday, German consumer sentiment figures will also influence ahead of Q1 GDP numbers on Friday.

GDP numbers from France, Germany, and Spain will be the main stats at the end of the week.

For the week, the EUR fell by 0.62% to $1.0810.

For the Pound:

It is a quiet week ahead, with economic data limited to CBI Industrial Trend Orders. With little else to consider, expect Pound sensitivity to the numbers.

In the week, the Pound slid by 1.69% to end the week at $1.2839.

For the Loonie:

It is also a quiet week ahead. February GDP numbers will be in focus. We don’t expect the numbers to have a material impact on BoC monetary policy and the Loonie.

In the week ending April-22, the Loonie fell by 0.79 to C$1.2710 against the Greenback.

From the Asia Pacific

For the Aussie Dollar:

Inflation and retail sales will be in focus during the week.

On Wednesday, Q1 consumer prices are out ahead of retail sales on Thursday. The numbers will be key considerations for the RBA and the policy outlook.

Wholesale inflation figures on Friday will also draw interest.

Other stats include private sector credit figures for March, which will have a muted impact on the Aussie Dollar.

The Aussie Dollar tumbled by 2.04% to $0.7244.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

Trade data and business confidence figures will be in focus on Thursday. Weak numbers would further test Kiwi Dollar support after last week’s sell-off.

From China, expect private sector PMIs and news updates on lockdown measures to also influence.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down 1.85% to end the week at $0.6639.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a quiet week ahead, with stats limited to retail sales and finalized industrial production numbers.

Expect the retail sales figures to draw greater interest.

This week, the Bank of Japan will also deliver its policy decision on Thursday. The markets are not expecting any shift in policy outlook, which should leave the Yen on the defensive.

The Japanese Yen slid by 1.61% to end the week at ¥128.50 against the Dollar.

Out of China

It is a quieter week ahead, with manufacturing PMI numbers for April due out on Friday. The markets will be looking to assess the damage to manufacturing sector activity following the latest lockdown measures and the war in Ukraine.

In the week ending April-22, the Chinese Yuan tumbled by 2.04% to CNY6.5014 against the Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Russia and Ukraine will remain the area of focus in the week ahead.