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The Week Ahead – Russia Invasion Updates to Remain the Key Driver

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Mar 5, 2022, 23:31 UTC

It's a quieter week ahead on the economic data front. While the ECB policy decision and press conference will draw interest, Russia will remain the key driver.

Money world

In this article:

On the Macro

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 50 stats due out through the week ending 11th March. In the week prior, 79 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

JOLT’s job openings will be in focus on Tuesday ahead of jobless claims and inflation on Thursday.

While jobless claims will draw interest, the inflation figures will be the key before next week’s FOMC policy decision.

On Friday, consumer sentiment figures are also due out and could shed some light on sentiment towards Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the week ending 4th March, the Dollar Spot Index rallied by 2.10% to 98.648.

For the EUR:

German retail sales, factory orders, and industrial production will be the key stats of the week. Barring revisions to Eurozone 4th quarter GDP numbers, these should have a muted impact on the EUR.

On Thursday, the ECB press conference is the main driver. The markets will be looking for the ECB to deliver an impact analysis on the Russian invasion and sanctions on the Eurozone economy, financial sector, and monetary policy.

For the week, the EUR tumbled by 3.02% to $1.0928.

For the Pound:

Industrial and manufacturing production figures are due out along with trade data and 4th quarter GDP numbers. While the stats, due out on Friday, will draw interest, market risk sentiment will remain the key driver.

The Pound slid by 1.33% to end the week at $1.3230.

For the Loonie:

Trade data on Tuesday and employment figures on Friday will be in focus. Expect the employment numbers to be the key driver.

The Loonie ended the week down 0.14% to C$1.2731 against the U.S Dollar.

From the Asia Pacific

For the Aussie Dollar:

Business and consumer confidence figures are due out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both business investment and consumer spending are essential to economic recovery.

The Aussie Dollar rallied by 1.99% to $0.7370.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead, with stats limited to electronic card retail sales and business PMI figures. We would expect electronic card retail sales to be the key.

News updates on the Omicron strain and economic data from China will also influence.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 1.74% to $0.6860.

For the Japanese Yen:

4th quarter GDP and household spending figures are due out. Barring revisions to prelim figures, expect household spending to garner greater interest.

Away from the economic calendar, market risk sentiment will remain the key driver, however.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.63% to end the week at ¥114.820 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

Trade data is in focus on Monday ahead of inflation figures on Wednesday. With energy prices surging in response to Russia invading Ukraine, expect both sets of numbers to influence market risk sentiment.

In the week ending 4th March, the Yuan slipped by 0.03% to end the week at CNY6.3195 against the Dollar. The Yuan had risen by 0.58% to CNY6.3175 in the week prior.

Geo-Politics

Russia and Ukraine will remain the area of focus in the week ahead, which will continue to overshadow economic data and central bank chatter once more.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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