AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Sellers Eyeing Long-Term Bottoms at .6991 and .6963
The Australian Dollar is inching lower on Friday, headed for their fifth week of losses, as the spread of the Omicron variant clouded the outlook for global growth just as markets were pricing in a faster pace of U.S. rate hikes. Traders are also awaiting the release of U.S. labor market data at 13:30 GMT.
At 08:08 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7062, down 0.0031 or -0.43%. On Thursday, the Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) settled at $70.38, down $0.06 or -0.09%.
While the U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling a faster pace of tapering, most traders assume it is too early for the RBA to change tack on its dovish outlook of no rate hikes in 2022, though there was some talk it might flag a cut in its bond buying.
Looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, U.S. employers likely stepped up hiring in November as they scrambled to meet strong demand for goods and services, giving the economy a strong boost as another challenging year draws to a close, though worker shortages remained a constraint.
Non-Farm Payrolls likely increased by 550,000 jobs last month after rising 531,000 in October, according to a Reuters survey of economists. The Unemployment Rate is expected to fall to a 20-month low of 4.5% and wages are expected to show an increase of 0.4%.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to daily swing charts. Today’s trade through .7063 signaled a resumption of the downtrend.
A move through .7431 will change the main trend to up. This is highly unlikely, but the prolonged move down in terms of price and time has put the AUD/USD inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal top.
The minor trend is also down. A trade through .7173 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.
The first minor range is .7173 to .7061. Its pivot at .7117 is the nearest resistance. This level will move down as the market moves lower.
The second minor pivot resistance is .7216. This is followed by a retracement zone at .7246 to .7290.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the AUD/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7092.
A sustained move under .7092 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at .7061 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into a pair of long-term main bottoms at .6991 and .6963.
A sustained move over .7092 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is .7117. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a near-term surge into the minor top at .7173.