AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to .7731 Sets the Near-Term Tone

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly better on Friday while hovering just below its highest level since 2018 reached earlier in the week. Traders are also awaiting the release of fresh U.S. jobs data likely to give clues on the extent of fiscal stimulus needed to prop up the coronavirus-hit economy. Firm U.S. Treasury yields are also helping to keep a lid on prices.

At 10:41 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7776, up 0.0009 or +0.12%.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls for December is due at 13:30 GMT, with the median expectation in a Reuters poll for +71,000 jobs, down from +245,000 in November.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7820 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through .7643.

The minor range is .7643 to .7820. Its 50% level at .7731 is support. This level has been tested successfully the last three sessions.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action indicates the direction of the AUD/USD on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at .7731.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7731 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into .7820. Overtaking this level will signal the start of a new leg higher.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7731 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with .7643 the next downside target.

Taking out .7643 will change the main trend to down. A move through this level will likely mean that U.S. Treasury yields have spiked higher.