AUD/USD Price Forecast: 0.6960 EMA Barrier Holds the Key Ahead of US CPI

Volatility remains elevated. We watched the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shake up market complacency last week with a jobs beat, instantly stifling any lingering, dovish Federal Reserve rate cut dreams, and sending Treasury yields higher across the curve. The dollar is elevated a little, eye to eye with 100. Geopolitics complicates everything right now. Higher crude oil prices, tied directly to the escalating, unpredictable Iran conflict, have forced an energy shock onto the global economy, trapping the Reserve Bank of Australia. They hiked to 4.10%. They can’t cut. Not now. Altogether, the RBA still has to respect inflation, while strong US jobs data continues to argue for a firm dollar. CPI is the next number that could force the market to lean one way.

The Supertrend Squeeze on the Weekly Chart

The weekly timeframe reveals a consolidation phase that has trapped swing traders for several weeks, as the broader macroeconomic recovery off the deep 0.5509 lows slowly loses its directional momentum. Look at the squeeze. Price sits near 0.6938, hovering above the Long Supertrend floor at 0.6725, while attempting to test the Short Supertrend ceiling currently parked at 0.7030. Buyers are putting up a fight within this whirlwind of geopolitical headlines.

AUD/USD Weekly Price Action Constrained by 0.7030 Resistance

AUD/USD weekly chart showing price squeezed between Supertrend indicators. Source: TradingView

Trapped Beneath the 21-Day EMA

After printing a cycle high at 0.7187 back in early March, the Aussie suffered a downside reversal, cracking below immediate moving average support, leaving late retail buyers trapped in underwater longs. The daily 21 EMA acts as the wall for a potential trend change. It sits at 0.6960, repeatedly rejecting weak buying attempts from bulls who desperately lack the fundamental conviction to push price higher. The 14-period RSI rests neutral to the downside at 46.77. We need a daily close above 0.6960. Sellers control it.

AUD/USD Daily Momentum Fades Below the 0.6960 EMA Barrier

AUD/USD daily chart highlighting price rejection down to the 21 EMA. Source: TradingView

Intraday Bulls Spark Some Reversal

Looking into the micro structure on the 0.001-Brick Renko, we can clearly observe the mechanics of a sudden, sharp intraday recovery that desperately launched right off the 0.6834 floor. A V-shaped bounce. The Supertrend flipped green, aggressively pushing the RSI up to a bullish 59.97, while heavily trapping late-stage bears who chased the prior geopolitical dump. The 20-period Z-Score is elevated above 1. But the massive 500 SMA still lurks overhead at 0.7015. Dip buyers stepped up. But for how long?

0.001-Brick Renko Displaying an Intraday V-bottom Recovery Toward the 500 SMA

0.001-Brick Renko of AUD/USD showing a bounce and rising Z-Score Source:TradingView

The Verdict

Current trend direction: Macro consolidation, daily bearish, micro bullish.

Bias: Positive

Key support levels: 0.6725, 0.6834.

Key resistance levels: 0.7015, 0.7030.

Medium term path: I expect price to chop between the 0.6834 base and the 0.703 daily EMA, as traders reposition their portfolios ahead of the US inflation print. A hot CPI number will likely trigger a harsh rejection off 0.6960, sending us plunging back toward 0.6725, whereas a cool number could blast us right through the 0.7030 weekly ceiling.