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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – week of September 5, 2016
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The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7573 ahead of the RBA rate decision on Tuesday. The currency remains a bit higher than the RBA would like. The pair gas up
The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7573 ahead of the RBA rate decision on Tuesday. The currency remains a bit higher than the RBA would like. The pair gas up 0.12% for the week but remains up by 4% ytd. Economist Guy Debelle will be the new deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Debelle is currently the assistant governor for financial markets at the RBA, and has worked at the central bank since 1994. He previously worked at the International Monetary Fund and the Australian Treasury department. Debelle will take over from current deputy governor Philip Lowe, who will replace Glenn Stevens as RBA governor on September 18.
“We expect the RBA to hold steady and point out that it is waiting to see the full effects of the cuts that have just been delivered,” HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said.
Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Arid said the focus would be on RBA governor Glenn Stevens’s statement, which will be his last before his deputy Philip Lowe takes over.
“On that score, we will be looking for the governor’s latest views on the housing market, labour market and Q2 capex survey,” Mr Arid said.
Royal Bank of Canada chief economist Su-Lin Ong said the RBA provided its full macro-economic rundown its statement in August, when the cash rate was cut by 25 percentage points.
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This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:
| Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous | |||||
| Monday, September 5, 2016 | ||||||||
| United States – Labor Day | ||||||||
| Canada – Labour Day | ||||||||
| GBP | Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 48.2 | ||||||
| GBP | Services PMI (Aug) | 50.0 | 47.4 | |||||
| Tuesday, September 6, 2016 | ||||||||
| AUD | Interest Rate Decision (Sep) | 1.50% | 1.50% | |||||
| AUD | RBA Rate Statement | |||||||
| USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 55.0 | 55.5 | |||||
| Wednesday, September 7, 2016 | ||||||||
| AUD | GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.4% | 1.1% | |||||
| GBP | Manufacturing Production | -0.4% | -0.3% | |||||
| CAD | Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | ||||||
| CAD | Ivey PMI (Aug) | 57.0 | ||||||
| Thursday, September 8, 2016 | ||||||||
| JPY | GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | |||||||
| CNY | Trade Balance (USD) (Aug) | 52.31B | ||||||
| EUR | Interest Rate Decision (Sep) | 0.00% | 0.00% | |||||
| EUR | ECB President Draghi Speaks | |||||||
| USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.276M | ||||||
| Friday, September 9, 2016 | ||||||||
| CNY | CPI (YoY) (Aug) | 1.8% | ||||||
| CAD | Employment Change (Aug) | 18.0K | -31.2K | |||||
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country Auction
Sep 06 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction
Sep 06 11:30 UK 1.5% 2026 Gilt
Sep 06 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction
Sep 07 10:30 Denmark Holds bond auction
Sep 07 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Sep 07 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn 0% Aug 2026 Bund
Sep 08 11:00 Ireland Holds bond auction
Sep 08 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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