Our Gold Cycle Indicator finished Thursday at 50. We could see a reading between ZERO and 25 later this month, which often supports a major buying setup.
Gold 2022 vs. Now
If you didn’t get a chance, check out Thursday’s Morning Brief. I explain how the current setup mirrors the rising-yield environment we saw in 2022, which led to additional weakness in precious metals into the October timeframe.
In a nutshell, we could see a little more downside and a reading between 0 and 25 in the Gold Cycle Indicator before precious metals resume their uptrends. Note how a multi-year gain followed the final low in 2022, which was also a mid-term election year.
10-Year Yields
The breakout above 5.00% in 10-year Treasury yields is extending the pullback in precious metals. Simply put, gold should resume its uptrend once yields top out. Historically, peaks frequently occur in October, suggesting the correction in precious metals is likely nearing its end.
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US Dollar
The dollar hit fresh highs and could extend into the 103 – 105 area before peaking in October. I expect prices to top out when yields peak, likely within the next 30-days.
Gold
The breakout in Treasury yields is putting downward pressure on gold, similar to what we saw in 2022. Once yields peak, I expect gold to stabilize and its uptrend to resume. In the near term, prices could retest the trendline near $4,000, depending on how high Treasury yields spike.
This year has been nothing more than a consolidation phase following the record gains in 2025. Our work continues to support new all-time highs in 2027, with gold expected to reach $10,000+ by 2030.
Silver
Silver will likely remain under pressure until Treasury yields peak. In the near term, another test of support around $55.00 is possible.
Platinum
Platinum could slip back toward support between $1,500 and $1,550 if the 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise toward 5.50% in October.
GDX
Last week, I noted the potential for bullish flag patterns in the miners, which could support a rally back toward the Q1 highs before year-end. That remains a possibility as long as prices hold above Thursday’s $86.48 low.
GDXJ
Juniors must hold the $112.07 low to maintain the potential for a bullish flag. Momentum is slipping, implying near-term weakness unless it reverses quickly next week.
SILJ
The momentum breakdown in silver juniors has persisted for more than a few days, increasing the potential for further downside if prices close below $26.93.
NEM
Newmont is leading to the upside and is the first major gold miner to exceed its Q1 high. In the near term, the stock must hold this week’s $114.18 low to prevent further downside. I expect miners to outperform gold into 2030, and Newmont is a prime example of that potential.
In Summary
This year has been a consolidation period in precious metals following the massive gains of 2025. I expect the uptrends to resume within the next 30 days, with gold making fresh highs next year and miners leading the way.
Some additional downside is possible in October, and gold could slip briefly below $4,000. I view any additional weakness as a buying opportunity and will alert members if/when our Gold Cycle Indicator nears ZERO.
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