Binance’s BNB Risks 40% Downside If This Monthly Support is Broken

Binance’s native token, BNB (BNB), extended its decline on Thursday, falling 2% to slip below the $550 level.

The token is now down about 5.5% since Binance withdrew its license application in Greece, a move that could deepen uncertainty over its European Union operations.

BNB Risks First-Ever Monthly Breakdown Below 50-Month EMA

BNB’s latest drop has brought the token back to a critical long-term support zone near its 50-month exponential moving average, or 50-month EMA (the red wave), around $545.

The level, which also coincides with the $0.618 Fibonacci retracement line, has historically acted as a major floor for BNB during broad market corrections.

A decisive monthly close below the support confluence would mark a strong technical breakdown, weakening the token’s long-term uptrend structure and opening the door to a deeper, multi-month correction toward the $300–$322 range by year-end.

That downside target area aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and BNB’s 100-month EMA (purple) and amounts to up to 40% in correction.

BNB Will Never Return To Its Record High, Analyst Asserts

BNB may have already printed its long-term cycle peak and may never return to it, according to crypto analyst AlejandroBTC.

In a June 24 post, the analyst described BNB’s move toward $1,400 as a “generational top,” saying he does not expect the token to make another all-time high.

He further warned that BNB could fall much lower than most market participants currently expect, potentially revisiting two-digit levels in the coming years.

AlejandroBTC also tied his bearish BNB thesis to Binance’s broader market position. According to him, Binance’s dominance could gradually weaken over time, reducing one of the key fundamental pillars behind BNB’s long-term valuation.

BNB Underperforms Hyperliquid as Rival Exchange Narrative Builds

BNB’s relative performance against Hyperliquid’s HYPE token also supports the bearish view.

As of Tuesday, the BNB/HYPE ratio was near 8.35 compared to the record high of 66.85 in December 2024.

In other words, one BNB now buys far fewer HYPE tokens than it did at the peak, reflecting a roughly 87.5% collapse in BNB’s relative strength versus its emerging decentralized exchange rival.

The weekly BNB/HYPE chart shows the pair trading well below its 20-week and 50-week EMAs, signaling that momentum remains firmly in HYPE’s favor.

The ratio’s RSI has also dropped into oversold territory near 28, which may allow short-term rebounds, but the broader structure still points to sustained underperformance.

This relative weakness adds another layer to AlejandroBTC’s thesis that BNB’s market dominance may have peaked, especially as Hyperliquid gains traction among derivatives traders.