Bitcoin Price: BTC Under $60K Likely on Rising Sept Fed Rate Hike Bets

Bitcoin (BTC) is threatening a drop below $60,000 as futures traders ramp up bets on a September Fed rate hike, putting critical psychological support to the test.

CME FedWatch: Odds of September Fed Rate Hike Top 50%

Futures traders have aggressively accelerated their macroeconomic tightening expectations, officially pushing the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike past the 50% threshold.

According to July 9 data from the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants now place a dominant 50.8% probability on the central bank lifting its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to a range of 375–400 bps at the upcoming September 16 meeting.

Just one month ago, a commanding 62.5% majority of traders anticipated a pause. Today, that baseline assumption has collapsed to 34.0%, while the combined odds of a rate hike, either 25 bps or a more aggressive 50 bps, have surged to a collective 66%.

The rapid repricing comes on the heels of the recently released FOMC minutes, which revealed deep divisions among central bank officials over stubborn inflation pressures, which Chairman Kevin Warsh described as a “family fight.”

One camp sees rates holding or cutting as inflation fades, while the other, including nine of 18 in the dot plot, expects at least one hike if inflation persists.

Bitcoin fell roughly 3% following the Fed minutes before clawing back losses on Thursday, tracking a broader rebound in global tech stocks. The recovery came as optimism over AI chip demand improved risk sentiment, boosted by Apple’s expanded $30 billion supply deal with Broadcom.

Bitcoin Wedge Breakdown Threatens Dip Under $60,000

Bitcoin is attempting to recover after breaking below a rising wedge on the four-hour chart, but the rebound is approaching a major resistance confluence near $63,800–$64,000.

That zone aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-4H EMA and the wedge’s former lower trendline, increasing the risk of a bearish retest. A rejection from the area could confirm the breakdown and push BTC below $60,000, toward the pattern’s downside target near $59,300.

However, a decisive four-hour close above $64,000 would weaken the bearish outlook, invalidate the retest setup, and improve Bitcoin’s chances of extending its short-term recovery toward higher resistance levels.