Bitcoin Price Forecast: Odds of a Rally Rise as BTC ETF Inflows Near $1 Billion in 6 Days

Bitcoin (BTC) has hit a key resistance at $66,000 that could mark the beginning of a strong rally to $74,000 if broken, and inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the top crypto show how enthusiastic market participants seem to be about it.

According to data from SoSoValue, investors have poured $930 million into these vehicles in the past 6 days, indicating that sentiment has shifted to the positive end lately.

Inflation cooling down in the United States in June could have been the primary driver influencing this latest uptick in the price of Bitcoin.

However, market participants are once again concerned that higher oil prices could derail hopes that the Federal Reserve will delay a rate hike until the end of the year.

The price of crude climbed to its highest level since June 11 today to $86 as geopolitical tensions persist. The United States resumed its bombings on Iran after failing to strike a satisfactory deal with the nation-state.

As a result, the odds that the Fed will leave rates unchanged by September, as per FedWatch, dropped from 51% a week ago to 25% as of today.

Can Bitcoin withstand this kind of volatility in the macroeconomic backdrop? The most likely answer to that is “no”.

However, at least for now, the price action is still leaving room for a bullish outlook if the token manages to climb past $66,000.

Weekly “Buy” Signal Persists as Long as BTC Trades Above $60,000

Our weekly buy signal for Bitcoin has endured despite the significant volatility that the top crypto has experienced recently.

This signal triggered as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit 30 in this higher time frame. In the three previous instances that this happened, the price recovered strongly and a strong bull market began just a few months later.

We see BTC rising to $200,000 in the long term if this signal performs as it did in the past. As long as the token stays above $60,000, this signal is still in play.

BTC Could Retest $74K But We Don’t See It Pushing Past That for Now

Looking at the daily chart, we have been tracking a “W-shaped” bullish pattern that could anticipate a strong move to $74,000 in the near term if the $66,000 area (the neckline) is broken.

Today’s retreat has been met with some extra buying, increasing the odds of a move above that mark.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 60, a level that would confirm a buy signal if hit, as it indicates that bulls are in control of the price action and that price momentum is increasing.

The $74,000 level is our base target for BTC because it shows confluence between the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and a key horizontal resistance. The last time this technical line was hit, the price reacted strongly.

Hence, market makers will likely aim to unwind the liquidity that could still be sitting at that level. However, we don’t see BTC rising past that in the mid-term as market conditions remain highly unfavorable.