Bitcoin vs. US Stocks: Why BTC Is Falling While S&P 500 Hits Records?

Bitcoin (BTC) began this week on a downbeat note, falling 1.80% after rallying to an intraday high of $116,786. That is despite US stock futures rising 0.2% to target another record territory after Friday’s close.

Why is Bitcoin, which has more or less behaved as a risk asset, underperforming US stocks this week?

Bitcoin is Staring at a Sell-The-News Scenario

This week, the main question driving markets is whether the Federal Reserve will validate or push back against aggressive expectations for interest rate cuts.

Futures markets now price reductions at the following three Fed meetings, with traders betting policymakers prioritize a cooling labor market over sticky inflation.

For the S&P 500, this setup works like fuel.

Equity investors see cheaper borrowing costs and looser financial conditions as a direct support for corporate earnings and valuations, which explains why stock futures are pushing toward fresh record highs.

Bitcoin, however, does not respond with the same optimism.

The cryptocurrency has already rallied aggressively on similar easing bets in recent months, meaning much of the “rate-cut premium” could be priced in. At the same time, lingering inflation risk creates uncertainty around Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, especially with Treasury yields remaining elevated.

Profit-taking ahead of the Fed’s policy decision adds to short-term selling pressure.

Bitcoin Accumulation Trends Show Neutral Bias

Onchain data reinforces the cautious mood.

Glassnode’s trend accumulation score shows that most Bitcoin holder cohorts are below the 0.5 threshold, signaling that sell-side pressure still outweighs buying demand.

Importantly, no group displays strong accumulation behavior above 0.8, which typically signals conviction-driven inflows.

While the distribution has softened compared to earlier this year, it has not reversed into broad-based accumulation. The result is a market structure that remains neutral-to-distribution, suggesting traders are either taking profits or waiting for clearer signals before committing fresh capital.

This lack of firm buying conviction helps explain why Bitcoin struggles to match US equities’ bullish momentum.

Can Bitcoin Go Higher After Fed Decision?

Bitcoin’s recent breakout from a falling wedge pattern hints at a rally despite the ongoing correction.

Historically, the falling wedge structure signals a potential trend reversal, and in this instance, it projects upside targets toward the $123,500 area, almost around the current record high.

Momentum indicators also back the bullish bias. The daily relative strength index (RSI) has rebounded from neutral territory without entering overbought levels, suggesting room for further upside.

Meanwhile, BTC’s price remains above its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) at around $113,400, reinforcing short-term trend support.

The longer-term 200-day EMA (the blue wave) near $105,300 remains intact, maintaining a strong underlying support.