Vivek Kumar
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The world’s largest aerospace company Boeing has upgraded its long-term forecasts for the commercial, defence and space aerospace market, reflecting signs of the industry’s recovery following the impacts of COVID-19.

According to 2021 Boeing Market Outlook (BMO), the aerospace products and services segment will grow to $9 trillion over the next decade. Forecasts have increased from $8.5 trillion a year ago, and from $8.7 trillion in the pre-pandemic forecast for 2019, reflecting the market’s continued recovery.

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According to the Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the company said the global aerospace market is recovering largely. Within the next two years, long-haul travel is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels, followed by domestic demand for air travel and intra-regional travel, which will ease health and travel restrictions.

The Boeing Market Outlook projects global demand for 19,000 commercial airplanes valued at $3.2 trillion over the next decade. During the next 20 years, Boeing projects the demand for more than 43,500 new airplanes worth $7.2 trillion, up about 500 planes over last year’s forecast.

Boeing Stock Price Forecast

Fifteen analysts who offered stock ratings for Boeing in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months of $275.87 with a high forecast of $307.00 and a low forecast of $224.00.

The average price target represents a 28.62% change from the last price of $214.48. From those 15 analysts, eight rated “Buy”, seven rated “Hold” while none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave the base target price of $274 with a high of $373 under a bull scenario and $146 under the worst-case scenario. The firm gave an “Overweight” rating on the company’s stock.

Several other analysts have also updated their stock outlook. UBS cut the target price to $290 from $310. Wells Fargo raised the price target to $254 from $244. Bernstein lifted the target price to $252 from $242. Vertical Research upped the target price to $250 from $242.


Analyst Comments

“We expect the market to value the company based on 2025 normalized post-COVID-19 earnings instead of a partial recovery in 2023. Broader COVID-19 vaccine rollout through 2021, eventual easing of international borders, and improved airline booking trends are positive catalysts that could force bears and sideliners to re-evaluate,” noted Kristine Liwag, Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Prior headwinds have abated, including: 1) lower production rates are now aligned to weaker demand; 2) implied aircraft cancellations have been recorded in the backlog de-risking the order book; and 3) current liquidity defers a potential equity raise to at least 2022, removing sentiment overhang.”

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