Close Over $1899.80 Puts April Gold in Bullish Position

Comex gold futures edged higher on Friday as Ukraine declared a state of emergency. The inside move on the daily chart suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

On Wednesday, April Comex gold futures settled at $1910.40, up $3.00 or +0.16%. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) finished at $178.25, up $0.76 or +0.43%.

Ukraine declared a state of emergency on Wednesday and told its citizens in Russia to flee, while reports of cyber-attacks on several of its state websites added to geopolitical tensions.

Additionally, the United States and its allies unveiled more sanctions against Russia over its recognition of two separatist areas in eastern Ukraine.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1918.30 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $1821.10 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $1845.40 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is a long-term Fibonacci level at $1951.00. On the downside, support is a long-term 50% level at $1899.80. Followed by a pair of pivots at $1881.90 and $1869.70.

The short-term support is a pair of retracement zones at $1869.70 – $1858.20 and $1849.50 – $1833.20.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the April Comex gold futures contract early Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at $1899.80.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1899.80 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out $1918.30 will signal a resumption of the uptrend and could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the long-term Fibonacci level at $1951.00 the next major target. This price level is also a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the psychological resistance at $2000.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1899.80 will signal the presence of sellers. This should trigger the start of a labored break with potential support targets ranging from $1881.90 to $1833.20. The latter is the last potential support before the $1821.10 main bottom.