The oil markets look to me as if they are trying to settle into a range. A wide one, but a range nonetheless.
The light sweet crude oil market initially gapped higher during the trading session on Friday but has given back gains pretty quickly despite the fact that we’ve seen oil refiners attacked in the Middle East, which is kind of interesting. I think maybe markets are just a little bit exhausted.
Overall, this looks like a market that is trying to find a range to continue to trade in, going back and forth between what looks to be roughly $90 and above, you would have the $110 level. Ultimately, this is a buy on the dip market, but I think it is somewhat limited to the upside because, quite frankly, there’s so much in the way of confusion and just waiting around out there on the next headline.
Brent markets have bounced from the $100 level after initially gapping higher and now it looks like the 50-day EMA is starting to come into the picture as well, so that also offers support. To the upside, the $115 level would be an area that people will see as a ceiling.
Overall, this is kind of the same situation as we have in the light sweet crude oil market, where I think you buy dips, but it’s probably going to be choppy and messy trading action in general.
With that, keep in mind that you might have to be a little bit loose with your stops, not necessarily recklessly so, but just a touch loose. The market breaking down below the lows of the Thursday session could open up a drop to the $90 level, although I don’t particularly expect that to happen.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.