Crude Oil Price Analysis – Crude Oil Tests 200-Day EMA as Iran Headlines Swirl

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude oil market has fallen during trading here on Tuesday early, as we continue to see a lot of noise here, and ultimately, I think you have to look at this as a market that will continue to be pretty noisy. I think it will continue to move on the latest headlines and unfortunately the latest headlines mean listening to whatever the Trump administration has to say or the Iranians or possibly other players in the market.

As things stand right now, Trump is going on about the Iranians, we may have a deal, Scott Bessent said the same thing, and oil has fallen. The Iranians, of course, continue to deny all of this, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.

I think this is a market that will continue to see plenty of volatility and quite frankly I’m not comfortable shorting it. We are just below the 200-day EMA, but with the games being played in the media, it’s clear that I can’t get overly aggressive without being reckless, and that is the problem that the market has right now. From a technical analysis standpoint, the 200-day EMA is potentially supportive, so is the $70 level; the $95 level seems to be resistance.

Brent Technical Analysis

The Brent market obviously has the same situation, the same problem in the sense that we have a lot of issues when it comes to the 200-day EMA being right here and the fact that the headlines and the narrative changes almost daily. I think the market is probably a little bit exhausted, but again my concern is that traders will get heavily involved in the Brent market, become heavily bullish, and then something will come out and it will knock prices down or the exact opposite.

Perhaps they start shorting based on these comments and the market rips in their face yet again. This is becoming a very dangerous market to trade in. Quite frankly, it looks like the market’s a bit tired, and it seems as if we are a long way from resolving the situation between the Americans and the Iranians.

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