Dax Index News: Futures Gain — Forecast Analysis Suggests Recovery from Weak Sentiment

DAX Falls Despite Global Rally as Economic Gloom Deepens

Sentiment toward the German economy collapsed in August as analysts reacted to the US-EU trade deal and signs of stalled economic momentum. The DAX fell 0.23% to 24,025 on Tuesday, August 12, closing above the crucial 24,000 support level. Nevertheless, the Index bucked the broader market trend, as CAC 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 posted gains of 0.71% and 0.08%, respectively.

Tech and Insurance Stocks Drag Index into the Red

SAP plunged 6.96% on August 12 as investors shunned software-linked stocks amid concerns about the potential impact of AI advancement on the space.

Hannover Re slid 3.46% after reporting higher-than-expected large loss expenditures, pulling Munich Re down 2.61%.

Meanwhile, Sartorius AG surged 7.41% as investors reacted to Jefferies upgrading the stock from hold to buy.

On August 13, corporate earnings could affect the DAX, with E.ON and Porsche set to release earnings results.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index Tumbles

The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany slid from 52.7 in July to 34.7 in August, weighing on sentiment. Economists had expected a more modest drop to 40.

ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach, PhD, remarked on August’s survey, stating:

“Financial market experts are disappointed from the announced EU–US trade deal. In August 2025, the ZEW indicator experiences a substantial decline, also due to the poor performance of the German economy in the second quarter of 2025.”

He also highlighted key sectors under pressure, adding:

“The outlook has worsened in particular for the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. The mechanical engineering and metal sectors as well as the automotive industry are also severely affected.”

German Wholesale Prices and Inflation in Focus

Looking ahead, German wholesale price trends and finalized inflation figures may guide the ECB’s rate path on Wednesday, August 13.

Economists expect wholesale prices to rise 0.8% year-on-year in July after June’s 0.9% increase. Softer wholesale prices may signal weakening demand, potentially easing inflationary pressures.

According to preliminary data, Germany’s annual inflation rate remained at 2% in July, holding at the ECB’s 2% target.

A downward revision to headline inflation and softer-than-expected wholesale price gains may lift bets on an ECB rate cut. A more dovish ECB policy stance could boost demand for German-listed stocks. On the other hand, higher readings may pressure the DAX.

Wall Street Rallies as US CPI Report Boosts Fed Rate Cut Bets

US inflation fueled bets on a September Fed rate cut, lifting sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite Index rallied 1.39%, while the Dow and the S&P 500 advanced 1.10% and 1.13%, respectively.

The US annual inflation rate remained at 2.7% in July, below the consensus rise to 2.8%. July’s headline inflation data eased concerns about US tariffs driving import costs and consumer prices higher. The data also tempered fears over US stagflation.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a September Fed rate cut increased from 85.9% on August 11 to 93.4% on August 12. Notably, the DAX returned above 24,000 after the data release.

Fed Speakers in Focus

Later in the session on Wednesday, August 13, FOMC members’ reactions to the US CPI Report could influence market sentiment.

Support for a larger 50-basis-point Fed rate cut in September and further easing in Q4 could trigger broad-based equity market rallies. On the other hand, calls to delay rate cuts to continue monitoring the potential effects of tariffs on inflation would likely pressure stocks.

Beyond the Fed, Ukraine war-related news and trade developments need consideration.

Outlook: Key Catalysts for the DAX

The DAX’s near-term outlook hinges on geopolitical news, German data, and central bank commentary.

• Bullish Case: Progress toward ending the Ukraine war, easing trade tensions, softer German inflation, and dovish central bank signals. These factors could send the DAX toward the 24,500 resistance level.
• Bearish Case: Uncertainty about the Ukraine war, rising trade friction, hotter German data, or hawkish central bank guidance. These scenarios may push the DAX below the 50-day EMA, exposing the 23,500 support level.

At the time of writing on August 13, the DAX futures gained 89 points, while the Nasdaq 100 climbed 15 points.

DAX Technicals

Despite Tuesday’s loss, the DAX trades above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a bullish bias.

• Upside Target: A breakout above the August 7 high of 24,392 could enable the bulls to target the 24,500 level. A sustained move through 24,500 opens the door to testing the all-time high of 24,639 resistance level.
• Downside risk: A break below the 50-day EMA could enable the bears to target the crucial 23,500 support level.

DAX Outlook Summary: Geopolitics, Inflation, and Central Bank Rhetoric

Traders should closely monitor updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, trade headlines, German inflation data, and central bank rhetoric. Geopolitical developments and central bank guidance are likely to have a greater weight on the Index.

Explore our exclusive forecasts to assess whether improving trade sentiment could lift the DAX to new highs. Refer to our latest forecasts and macro insights here for further analysis, and consult our economic calendar.